Polyester Bottle Flakes Hit a Weekly High Midweek Before Falling Back

May 22nd News

I. This week (May 18–22), polyester bottle flakes initially remained stable before turning weaker; both spot and futures markets experienced synchronized fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, the spot price in East China hovered around 8,900 CNY/ton, then surged higher mid-week before retreating, falling to 8,680 CNY/ton by Friday. The main futures contract followed suit, weakening as well. The pullback in crude oil prices weighed on costs, while downstream demand remained cautious and purchasing became more prudent. Factories’ willingness to hold prices weakened, resulting in an overall trend of high prices declining and trading volumes remaining light.

Futures ( Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PET bottle chip main contract PRZL2, CNY/ton)

5.19：8266(-36)

5.20：8298(+90)

5.21：8312(+38)

5:22 PM midday session: 8076 (down sharply by approximately -236 for the day)

Trend: A slight pullback at the beginning of the week → a rebound in the middle of the week → a sharp drop on Friday, with overall high-level volatility and a weak bias.

Spot (East China bottle grade, tax included ex-factory, CNY/ton)

5.19：8920(-50)

5.20：8910(+30)

5.21：8890(-20)

5.22: 8680-8750 (stable)

Features: The factory is clearly holding prices, and transactions mainly consist of small, essential-need orders.

II. Analysis of Core Driving Factors

1. Cost Side: Crude oil prices have retreated, and polyester raw materials remain weak. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have eased slightly, leading to a pullback in international crude oil prices from their previous highs. As a result, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have fluctuated downward. The production cost of bottle-grade chips is approximately 7,252 CNY/ton, down 59 CNY/ton week-on-week; the gross profit margin for production stands at around 1,061 CNY/ton, still at a relatively high level, and factories continue to show strong willingness to maintain prices.

2. Supply Side: Production starts remain stable, inventory levels are relatively low, and exports provide solid support. China’s output stands at approximately 331,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 71.4%, unchanged from the previous month. There are expectations that some units previously shut down for extended periods will resume operations, potentially boosting supply in the later period. Factory inventories stand at around 8 days’ worth, reaching a multi-year low, resulting in tight spot market conditions. Export orders remain robust, and favorable “zero-tariff” policies in countries such as Indonesia are boosting export volumes. The price differential between domestic and international markets continues to support spot prices.

3. Demand Side: Domestic demand is subdued, the peak season is nearing its end, and demand driven by essential needs dominates. In China, end-market sectors such as beverages and edible oils are entering the late stage of their peak season, prompting a slowdown in inventory preparation. Downstream purchasing activity remains weak, with most players adopting a wait-and-see approach. Demand for non-beverage products like sheet materials and injection-molded parts is generally moderate; procurement is primarily driven by essential needs, and there is little willingness to replenish stocks at lower prices.

4. Futures Market: Affected by fluctuations in capital flows, declining warehouse receipts, and a high basis, futures prices plunged sharply on Friday. The decline was driven by a pullback in crude oil prices and capital outflows, leaving short-term sentiment bearish. Warehouse receipts continue to fall, with a cumulative decrease of 23.79% this week; the tight spot market situation remains unchanged. The basis (spot price minus futures price) has stayed at a high level of 500–600 CNY/ton, providing support for futures prices.

III. Technical Analysis

According to the commodity market analysis system, when the 10-day moving average is above the 20-day moving average, the probability of an uptrend is higher. Conversely, the probability is lower. Starting from May 7th, the 10-day moving average began to turn downward and approach the 20-day moving average, and on May 14th, it fell below the 20-day moving average, increasing the probability of a downtrend.

As shown in the figure, this week's decline also confirms the accuracy of the core principles of spot market analysis in China.

IV. Market Summary and Outlook—This Week’s Conclusion: Cost corrections weighed on futures, while low inventory and robust exports provided support for the spot market. Factories are holding prices steady, and transactions driven by genuine demand continue, resulting in overall price fluctuations within a high-range trading band.

Short-term forecast (late May–early June): Prices: spot market 8,800–9,000 CNY/ton; futures market 8,000–8,400 CNY/ton, with wide-ranging fluctuations.

Key factors: crude oil trends, PTA maintenance shutdowns, inventory changes, and export orders.

Risk: If crude oil continues to fall sharply or inventories accumulate, spot prices may see a small correction; the probability of a sharp decline is low under low inventory conditions.