Narrowing of the Average Difference! Acrylic Acid Decline Slows, Market Fluctuates and Stagnates

June 2nd news

I. Review of Price Trends

This week, the acrylic acid market in China as a whole showed a narrow range of fluctuations. According to the published data, as of June 1st, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8,616.67 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.39% from the beginning of this month (May 31st) at 8,650.00 CNY/ton. Looking back at the recent trend, after a rapid rise in the early period, the market entered a downward channel in mid to late April. By the end of May to early June, the decline significantly slowed down. The price briefly stabilized around 8,650 CNY/ton and then slightly fell to the 8,600 CNY/ton range, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears in the market are temporarily in balance.

II. Analysis of Spotcom Moving Average Indicators

Combining the moving average system, the market in China this week is in a typical weak consolidation pattern.

The moving average suppression is evident: From the moving average trend, it can be seen that the 10-day moving average (red line), which represents the short-term trend, and the 20-day moving average (cyan line), which represents the medium-term trend, are both in a downward sloping state, with the 10-day moving average consistently running below the 20-day moving average. This bearish alignment indicates that the medium-term downward pressure in the Chinese market still exists, and the resistance to a rebound is significant.

According to the core principle, since the 10-day moving average is below the 20-day moving average, the market is in a "negative" state. Within this week, with minor price fluctuations, the difference between the averages has not shown significant expansion or contraction, but rather maintained a relatively stable converging state. This indicates that the current market is in a "negative narrowing" phase, meaning that the downward momentum is gradually weakening, and the market lacks clear acceleration for further decline. However, there are no signs of a reversal, which is consistent with the characteristics of consolidation.

III. Price and Position Analysis

Although a short-term low position usually means an increased probability of a rebound, the moving average system is still diverging downward, and the recent daily change rate has mostly been 0.00% or with very small fluctuations, indicating that the market lacks the driving force for active buying, and the game between supply and demand has reached a stalemate.

4. Future Market Outlook

Overall, the acrylic acid market in China continued its previous trend of fluctuation and consolidation this week under the ongoing influence of supply and demand dynamics. The spot price difference indicator shows a deceleration in the decline, with prices nearing a short to medium-term bottom. However, the bearish pressure from the moving average system has limited the rebound potential. In the short term, the market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern. Investors and downstream buyers should closely monitor changes in the moving averages. If the 10-day moving average crosses above the 20-day moving average to form a golden cross, it could signal the start of a new trend. Conversely, if the price difference widens again, there will be a need to guard against the risk of a second bottom.