[Key Insight] Currently, BDO’s clear upward trend is underpinned by supply contraction resulting from multiple plant maintenance activities in August and September. On August 25, the spot price in East China rose by 50 yuan month-on-month to between 8,050 and 8,150 CNY per ton. In the short term, prices have already reached a 60-day high, leaving limited room for further increases; however, in the medium- to long-term, prices remain at a mid-range level and continue to offer some support.
1. Average Difference Variation Table
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026.08.25 | Value on 2026.08.24 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 70.00 | 35.00 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 48.34 | 48.33 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 57.50 | 45.83 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
Three differences are all positive, indicating a clear upward signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The current BDO price is showing a clear upward trend in the short term. The reasons are: the changes in all three averages compared to the previous day are completely consistent and positive, meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend; coupled with multiple units of Xinjiang Lianshantunhe undergoing maintenance for one month starting from the end of July, and the Sichuan Yongying unit scheduled for planned maintenance starting August 31, the supply side is contracting, which supports the price. From August 20 to 25, the negotiated price for BDO in bulk water in East China increased by 150 CNY/ton, indicating a clear upward trend in the market.
4. Positional Spatial Reference
The 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high level), and the short-term upside potential is limited.
Prices over 3-month and 1-year periods are in the third tier (median), and there remains some upward support in the medium to long term.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
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