PVC Market Reverses in August, Experiencing Fluctuations and Decline in China

August 29 update

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system, the Chinese PVC spot market in August did not continue the upward trend from the previous month, and the market showed a fluctuating downward trend. As of August 29, the average price of PVC in China was 4,676 CNY/ton, with the monthly price falling by 2.83%.

2. Market Analysis

In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market in China maintained a range-bound fluctuation, with prices rising and falling. In the second half of the month, due to negative impacts on the supply and demand fundamentals, PVC prices reversed and declined, with the price decrease further deepening.

Specifically, on one hand, cost support remains weak, pressured by softer upstream crude oil and ethylene prices. This is further compounded by downward pressure from the futures market, which has been fluctuating and trending lower. Consequently, spot prices are following suit, moving in a volatile yet declining trend. On the other hand, both supply and demand are under some strain, with the spot market still stuck in a downward channel. At the same time, operating rates remain persistently high, driving production levels higher rather than lower—resulting in a slight supply surplus. For now, the market shows no clear signs of bottoming out or stabilizing. Downstream buyers are primarily opting for spot pricing, while overall purchasing interest remains subdued, leading to lackluster market activity. Listed prices, meanwhile, are relatively low. Overall, demand-driven buying continues to dominate, keeping trading dynamics fairly muted. As of August 29, the mainstream price range for China’s SG5 PVC (calcium carbide-based) material hovered around 4,700–4,800 CNY per ton.

In the upstream calcium carbide sector, since August, the price of calcium carbide has continued the weak fluctuation trend seen in the previous two months. According to the monitored data, the price decrease of calcium carbide in August was 0.28%. Overall, there is a lack of positive guidance for calcium carbide, and its supportive role is limited. Moreover, with the weak performance of downstream PVC, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.

III. Market Forecast

PVC analysts believe that in the short term, the supply and demand for PVC will still maintain a weak pattern, mainly due to the continuously high operating rates of manufacturers, with both enterprise inventories and market inventories being high. In the medium to long term, there is also the impact of policy uncertainty. The pressure on PVC will remain significant later on. It is expected that in the short term, PVC prices will still remain weak.