August 20th, according to news,
On August 19, the spot market for phenol showed a strong rebound with volatile fluctuations; the mean difference indicator signaled a bullish rebound. The price hikes announced by some enterprises boosted market sentiment. Coupled with expectations of maintenance at downstream bisphenol A plants, the short-term market trend remains bullish and volatile. However, the medium-to-high price range is putting some constraints on the extent of the rebound.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
Difference Type Today's Value Yesterday's Value Direction of Change
5-day average difference (D5) 63.50 -15.00 +
10-day average difference (D10) -75.00 -129.00 +
20-day average difference (D20) -177.38 -171.13 -
II. Signal State Determination
The current mean difference change direction combination is (+, +, -), which matches the characteristics of a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The price trend is characterized by volatility (with a slight bullish rebound). Reason: The 5-day and 10-day moving averages’ difference has turned positive from negative or narrowed its negative value compared to yesterday (the direction of change is positive), indicating that short-term price rebound momentum is strengthening. However, the 20-day moving average’s difference continues to widen in the negative direction (the direction of change is negative), suggesting that the medium-term downtrend has not yet been fully reversed. Since the directions of change among these three moving averages are not entirely consistent, the overall market is in a volatile state, yet it exhibits a tendency toward a bullish rebound.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
The price is in the median range of a 1-year cycle, while the 60-day and 3-month cycles are in the mid-high range. The median range indicates a relatively balanced potential for increases and decreases, while the mid-high range somewhat limits the space for a short-term rebound, requiring attention to the performance of the upper resistance levels; at the same time, the median range also indicates that the price is not at an extremely low level, and there is support for downward movement.
5. Trend Chart Display
Six, Supplementary Market Dynamics
Enterprise Quotes: Li Hua Yi Wei Yuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has raised its phenol factory price to RMB 8,350 per ton effective August 19. The company’s two phenol-ketone units, with a combined capacity of 700,000 tons per year, are operating normally and shipping products according to schedule. Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical raised its phenol price by RMB 50 per ton to RMB 8,250 per ton on August 19. Its 250,000-ton-per-year phenol-ketone unit is running smoothly, and inventory levels are moderate. Sinopec East China is implementing a price of RMB 8,400 per ton, Gao Hua Materials is also at RMB 8,400 per ton, and Yangzhou Shiyou is at RMB 8,400 per ton.
Supply chain updates: Shandong Fuyu's 180,000 tons/year bisphenol A plant is scheduled to shut down for maintenance on August 17 for 30 days, which may have a certain impact on phenol demand; previously, the supply of spot bisphenol A in the domestic market increased, with rigid demand procurement being cautious and insufficient cost support.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
