July 9 news
Plasticizer DOP prices in China have stopped falling and started to rise.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of July 9th, the price of DOP was 8109.16 CNY/ton, which first decreased and then increased compared to the price of 8284.17 CNY/ton on July 1st, with a price decrease of 2.11%; and it increased compared to the price of 7975.84 CNY/ton on July 6th, with a price increase of 1.67%. Due to the impact of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict, the price of 2-ethylhexanol stopped falling and started to rise, leading to an increase in the raw material cost of DOP, and thus the DOP market trended upwards.
Raw material isooctanol prices in China have stopped falling and started to rise.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of June 29, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 7,400 CNY/ton, a decrease of 7.11% from the price of 7,966.67 CNY/ton on June 1, after initially rising and then falling. The United States tightened sanctions on Iranian oil, leading to a shipping safety crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, with escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a result, crude oil prices rose, which led to an increase in the price of 2-ethylhexanol, providing stronger support for the rise in DOP prices.
DOP Market Supply and Demand Analysis
Supply side: Overall supply has decreased.
In July, the capacity utilization rate of the DOP industry in China dropped to around 45%. The main factories' operations remained basically stable, and the overall supply of the DOP market decreased. However, the DOP market is still in the off-season, with weak demand continuing. There is an ample supply of goods in the market, and inventory reduction is slow.
Demand Side: PVC is in the off-season, and demand for DOP remains persistently weak.
The sluggish demand is the core factor restraining the upward momentum of market prices. In the off-season, downstream PVC products—such as artificial leather, cable compounds, films, and floor coverings—continue to face weak market conditions, with poor end-customer orders. Downstream manufacturers remain committed to purchasing only as needed, refusing to stock up in advance, and virtually no large-scale, centralized procurement is taking place. Weak demand for plasticizers persists.
Market Overview and Future Expectations
The plasticizer product data analyst believes that, from a cost perspective, the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict has driven up crude oil prices, which in turn have been passed down to downstream sectors. As a result, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) raw materials has risen, and the price of diisononyl phthalate (DINP) has stopped falling and begun to climb. On the supply side, plasticizer manufacturers have reduced their operating rates, leading to a decline in overall plasticizer supply. However, the market still has ample available inventory, and inventory destocking is proceeding slowly. From a demand perspective, the market remains in the off-season, with weak downstream demand persisting. Overall, given the rising prices of key raw materials—DINP and DOP—and the continued robust support for DOP prices, coupled with ample supply and persistent downstream weakness, the room for further DOP price increases is limited. It is expected that, after reaching higher levels, the DOP market will enter a period of high-level consolidation.
