Crude Oil Prices Rise, Local Refinery Gas and Diesel Prices in China Increase Slightly

November 17th, according to reports

According to the commodity market analysis system, the prices of gasoline and diesel from Shandong independent refineries this week mainly showed a slight increase. As of the 17th, the price of China's 92# gasoline was 7138.6 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.89%; the price of China's 0# diesel was 6587.6 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.76%.

Cost Perspective: Crude Oil Prices Rise, Driving Up Finished Oil Products

Supply side: Shandong independent refineries maintain operations, ensuring normal supply of refined oil products in China.

Recently, some local refining units in China have increased their operating loads, but the overall operating rate has not changed much. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 54%, while the operating rate of major refineries across China remains at about 85%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries is stable, and there are no significant changes in the supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong. The market for gasoline and diesel in Shandong is mainly characterized by wide fluctuations.

Demand Side: Demand is decent, with a slight increase in the overall gasoline and diesel market.

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel and other activities are mainly normal. Coupled with the recent rise in the crude oil market, it is difficult for China's gasoline terminal consumption to increase, and demand is relatively stable but weak. However, the continuously increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to a demand performance that is below expectations, causing a slight increase in gasoline prices. Regarding diesel, the supply side of the recent diesel market is normal, and demand is still mainly based on essential needs. With the autumn harvest nearing its end, the consumption of agricultural fuel has increased compared to before. The demand from infrastructure and logistics is average. Additionally, with the end of the fishing ban in northern regions, the demand for marine fuel has increased compared to before. Furthermore, as the northern regions switch to -10# diesel, the diesel market prices have slightly risen due to these factors.

Market Forecast: Recent risks on the crude oil supply front have yet to be eliminated, leading to predominantly weak and volatile international oil prices in the short term. As a result, cost support for China's refined oil market remains limited. In China, refinery operating rates have remained relatively stable over the short term, resulting in ample supplies of refined products. Meanwhile, mixed market sentiment—stemming from generally bearish news developments—continues to weigh on trader confidence. Additionally, as winter conditions intensify, demand for diesel is expected to remain subdued due to rigid underlying needs, while gasoline demand is also unlikely to improve significantly.