July 17 news
According to the commodity market analysis system, from July 10 to July 17 (up to 15:00), the quotation for methanol in the East China port of the Chinese methanol market first rose and then fell from 2613 CNY/ton to around 2638 CNY/ton. During this period, the price increased by 0.96%, decreased by 12.40% month-over-month, and increased by 10.31% year-over-year. Affected by weather factors, the inventory of methanol at the port continued to decline. Additionally, the re-emergence of macroeconomic sentiment influenced the market mentality, leading to a relatively strong performance of coastal methanol prices.
As of the close on July 17, the methanol futures closing price on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China fell. The main contract for methanol futures 2609 opened at 2,645 CNY/ton, with a high of 2,662 CNY/ton and a low of 2,613 CNY/ton. It closed at 2,630 CNY/ton at the end of the day, down 5 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement, a decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume was 846,093, the open interest was 654,879, and the daily change in open interest was -10,255.
Methanol Spot and Futures Comparison Chart:
As of July 17, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions of China:
| Region | Price |
|---|---|
| Shanxi Region | 2,380–2,390 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
| Anhui Region | 2,500–2,550 CNY/ton |
| Henan Region | 2,435–2,475 CNY/ton, cash payment at factory |
On the cost side, coal prices remain relatively strong, while supply remains relatively stable. Overall demand, however, remains weak, providing only moderate support for methanol prices. The cost factors influencing methanol are leaning toward positive effects.
Coal/Power Coal (Upstream Raw Material) – Methanol Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Demand Side: On the downstream side, although olefins have undergone maintenance shutdowns, overall demand is recovering. Traditional downstream sectors are experiencing a decline in operating rates, while major production regions are increasing their external procurement of olefins, with steady pickup rhythms. Most downstream products are influenced by methanol prices, and the demand side for methanol is benefiting from favorable factors.
Methanol-Acetic Acid (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Methanol-MTBE (Downstream Product) Price Trend Comparison Chart:
Supply Side, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Anhui Haoyuan, Changzhi Nanyao, Jiangsu Sopo, Shanxi Linxin, Xinjiang Yankuang, Tangshan Zhongrun, and Anhui Huayi are undergoing plant maintenance; Jiangsu Sopo and Xinjiang Zhongtai have reduced production; Qinghai Salt Lake, Guizhou Tianfu, and Jinchuan Huayu have resumed operations. Overall, the amount of lost production exceeds the amount recovered, leading to a decrease in output and a decline in the capacity utilization rate. The supply side of methanol is influenced by positive factors.
On the international markets, as of the close on July 16, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at USD 420–422 per ton. The FOB U.S. Gulf methanol market closed at 130–132 cents per gallon; and the FOB Rotterdam, Europe methanol market closed at EUR 409–411 per ton.
| Region | Country | Closing Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | CFR Southeast Asia | USD 420–422 per ton | USD 0 per ton |
| Europe and the U.S. | U.S. Gulf | 130–132 cents per gallon | 0 cents per gallon |
| Europe | FOB Rotterdam | EUR 409–411 per ton | EUR 1 per ton |
Looking ahead, the spot supply of methanol remains ample. Currently, downstream enterprises in China that had previously undergone maintenance are gradually resuming operations, driving a steady increase in demand and boosting market transaction activity. Additionally, freight rates have risen somewhat. Overall, methanol analysts forecast that the Chinese spot methanol market is likely to consolidate at high levels.
