July 17th News
I. Price Trends
According to the data monitoring system, on July 17th, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region of China was 8,700 CNY/ton. Compared to July 1st (when the reference price of cyclohexanone was 7,800 CNY/ton), the price increased by 900 CNY/ton, a price increase of 11.54%.
In the first half of July (July 1-17), the cyclohexanone market in Shandong, China showed a steady upward trend, with the market focus in Shandong continuously moving towards higher levels and lower prices gradually decreasing. As of July 17, the cyclohexanone prices in Shandong were around 8,650-8,900 CNY per ton.
2. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply-side tightening: At the beginning of the month, some cyclohexanone production facilities in China underwent concentrated maintenance, reducing the supply of cyclohexanone in the market. The availability of spot goods decreased, and some major factories operated at low capacity. The sellable inventory in the market continued to decline, leading to a stronger reluctance among traders to sell, who actively pushed up prices. The overall tightening on the supply side supported the upward trend in the market.
Raw material costs increase: The prices of upstream pure benzene have also strengthened, raising production costs. Factories have a strong desire to maintain or follow the price increases, thus providing support on the cost side.
Downstream demand shows a phased recovery: Demand for downstream coatings, PU, and adipic acid has seen some recovery, with increased buying activity at lower prices. Market trading sentiment has improved, and spot prices are underpinned by strong, immediate demand.
Market Sentiment Boost: After a prolonged period of low consolidation, the market has expectations for a rebound; with inventory levels low among Chinese holders, the concentrated release of bullish sentiment has led to a stepwise increase in prices.
3. Future Market Forecast
Currently, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong is experiencing a moderate trading atmosphere with reasonable support within the market. It is expected that in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will mainly operate at high levels with some consolidation. More attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand as well as cost factors.
From a technical perspective
From the spot market analysis system, it can be seen that starting from July 13, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone began to cross above the 20-day moving average, and the upward difference has been continuously expanding, indicating a rising trend in the future. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a mid-high level (annual position) among the five levels. Combining these two indicators, it is predicted that the market price of cyclohexanone in China will mainly operate at a high and strong level. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation status of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.
