Relaxed Demand, Cyclohexanone Prices in Shandong Slightly Decline in April

May 8th News

I. Price Trends

In April, the market price of cyclohexanone in Shandong region showed a trend of "initial stability - subsequent decline - slight rebound at the end of the month." At the beginning of the month from the 1st to the 7th, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong remained stable at 9,900 CNY/ton. Starting from April 8th, the market began to show a weak downward trend, with the price of cyclohexanone falling to 9,600 CNY/ton, forming a low consolidation range. By the end of the month, the market for cyclohexanone showed a slight recovery, with prices rising to 9,750 CNY/ton, indicating a short-term rebound.

II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Supply aspect: In April, the overall supply of cyclohexanone was relatively loose in China, with ample inventory available in the market, providing limited support to market conditions.

Demand Side: At the beginning of the month, the cyclohexanone market showed a calm fundamental outlook, largely continuing the sentiment from the previous period, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see approach. By mid-month, downstream users’ demand remained insufficient, and the pace of plant operations and procurement in downstream industries was generally moderate. Consequently, the immediate demand for cyclohexanone purchases weakened, and downstream sectors lacked significant bulk restocking needs, resulting in overall weak willingness to take delivery in the market—directly driving prices to continue declining. Toward the end of the month, some downstream users began slightly stocking up ahead of the holiday season, providing modest support to market prices and leading to a marginal improvement in price trends.

III. Future Market Forecast

Currently, the cyclohexanone market is characterized by a mild and quiet trading atmosphere, with only moderate transmission between supply and demand. At present, the supply side remains relatively stable, while downstream demand is recovering slowly. It is expected that, in the short term, the cyclohexanone market in Shandong will likely fluctuate within a narrow range. Further attention should be paid to any changes in supply-and-demand dynamics.

From a technical perspective

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that on April 28, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed above the 20-day moving average, with the upward difference continuously expanding, predicting a rising trend in the future. The auxiliary indicators show that the price of cyclohexanone is at a high position among the five levels (annual position). Combining the two indicators, it is predicted that the market price of cyclohexanone in China will mainly continue to warm up and rise, but the price increase will be limited. It is also necessary to closely monitor the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation status of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.