July 28th News
I. Weekly Market Overview: Stabilizing After Declines, Strong Uptrend
This week (July 21-27, 2026), the melamine market in China experienced a significant "V-shaped" reversal. The market continued to be weak and volatile in the early part of the week, with prices lingering at low levels; by the weekend (July 27), the market saw a strong surge, successfully ending the downward trend and achieving a rebound.
As of July 27, the benchmark price of melamine surged to 6,125.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.08% from the previous trading day (6,000.00 CNY/ton). From a monthly perspective, the current price has risen by 1.24% compared to 6,050.00 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month, indicating a noticeable recovery in the market sentiment.
II. Trend Feature Analysis: Breakout After Bottom-Range Consolidation
Looking at the price trend for this week, melamine prices showed a slow and steady decline from July 21 to 26. The 10-day and 20-day moving averages moved downward in tandem, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range of 6,000 to 6,025 CNY per ton, forming a bottom.
The turning point occurred on July 27, when the spot price surged past the 6100 CNY/ton threshold in a single day. In the chart, the red 10-day moving average, after reaching its lowest point on July 26, sharply rose on the 27th and began to converge with or even cross above the cyan 20-day moving average, indicating strong short-term bullish momentum and ample rebound energy.
III. Technical Analysis of Xianhuotong: Strong Rebound, Trend Undecided
The significant increase on the 27th has shifted all short- and medium-term position indicators from "low" to "high," indicating that the Chinese market has stopped falling and is warming up. However, it should be noted that the 10-day moving average has not yet crossed above the 20-day moving average, so the signal for an upward trend is not fully confirmed. Analysts believe that the Chinese market is currently in a rebound and recovery phase, and whether it can transition to a one-sided uptrend will depend on whether the subsequent moving averages can follow and form a golden cross.
4. Outlook for the Future Market
Overall, after experiencing a prolonged period of bottoming out, the melamine market successfully broke through at the end of this week. The "moving average crossover" signal on the technical side and the fundamental reversal from decline to rise have formed a resonance, greatly boosting market confidence in the short term. It is expected that, supported by rigid demand and driven by market sentiment, melamine prices will likely maintain a strong and volatile pattern. Subsequent attention should be paid to the follow-up of downstream demand and changes in the facility utilization rate.
