August 19th, news:
Since August, the polyester staple fiber market in China has shown a trend of "low volatility at the beginning of the month and steady increase in the middle of the month." The rise in the market is driven by cost factors, coupled with support from production cuts to stabilize prices in the industry, leading to a continuous improvement in market conditions.
In early August, the polyester staple fiber market in China was quiet, with prices consolidating at low levels. At the beginning of the month, the average market price for (1.4D*38mm) was 7,564 CNY/ton. Under the high-temperature off-season, the operation rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained low, and terminal orders for autumn and winter had not yet been released in large quantities. Downstream yarn mills only made small replenishments based on rigid demand, and the market was characterized by a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Meanwhile, the upstream PTA price fluctuated narrowly, and crude oil prices were stable, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the cost end. The processing spread for short fibers continued to be inverted, resulting in widespread losses for enterprises, and the market lacked the impetus for a rise.
In mid-August, the rise in upstream raw material prices directly led to a significant rebound in polyester staple fiber. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices, and the cost was transmitted along the crude oil-PTA-polyester staple fiber industrial chain. The spot price of PTA surged to 6,350 CNY/ton, with a monthly price increase of 6.13%, significantly raising the production cost of staple fibers. Coupled with multiple PTA plant maintenance in China, the supply of raw materials tightened, and staple fiber companies simultaneously raised their ex-factory quotes. As of August 19, the market average price for (1.4D*38mm) was 7,752 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.50% from the beginning of the month. On the supply side, another positive factor emerged: in mid-August, major Chinese staple fiber manufacturers reached a consensus on reducing production to maintain prices, actively cutting output to avoid low-price dumping. This continued to reduce industry inventory, further solidifying the foundation for price increases.
Analysts believe that short-term crude oil geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and high oil prices continue to oscillate, providing a solid cost floor for PTA and polyester staple fiber. On the demand side, the "Golden September, Silver October" preparation cycle for the textile industry is gradually starting, with downstream yarn mills slowly increasing their inventory replenishment intentions, and orders for gray cloth and home textiles gradually recovering, supporting the market with firm demand. However, multiple negative factors are constraining the upward space: in late August, several PTA plants that were under maintenance will restart, increasing the supply of raw materials and weakening the cost support; overall orders in the terminal weaving sector are weak, with high gray cloth inventories, and under high raw material prices, downstream purchasing intentions are limited, making it difficult to sustain large-scale price increases. Additionally, with the significant previous price increase of polyester staple fiber, factories are more willing to sell after processing profits have been restored.
Overall, from late August to early September, polyester staple fiber will enter a high-level and wide-ranging fluctuation phase following the cost end, with the one-sided surge in prices coming to an end. Subsequently, it is still necessary to pay attention to international crude oil geopolitical news, the progress of PTA facility resumption in China, and the recovery strength of terminal autumn and winter textile orders.
