August 19th, news:
On August 18, 2026, the spot price of gasoline continued to rise, with clear signals of an increase indicated by the average difference metrics. The rise in international crude oil prices and the increase in refined oil quotations from Chinese local refineries provided support for the market. Currently, gasoline prices are at a medium-high level over a one-year period and at a high level over 60-day and three-month periods, indicating that the room for further increases is relatively limited. Additionally, the release of the "15th Five-Year" oil and gas plan mentioned improving the pricing mechanism for refined oil, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent policy implementation on the market.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026-08-18) | Yesterday's Value (2026-08-17) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | 79.46 | 18.94 | + |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 23.47 | 23.03 | + |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 55.74 | 47.29 | + |
II. Signal State Determination
Three differences are all positive and have the same direction of change as the previous day, indicating a clear upward signal.
Three, Conclusions on Trend Directions
The price trend is clearly upward. Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving average differences have all shown positive growth compared to yesterday, with the moving average difference indicators moving in the same direction; at the same time, the international crude oil market closed higher on August 18, and gasoline quotes from independent refineries in Northeast and Northwest China also increased, providing fundamental support for the upward trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Gasoline prices are in the mid-high range (60%-80% interval) over a 1-year period, and in the high range (top 20% interval) over 60-day and 3-month periods. The high range suggests limited room for further increases, and there is a need to be cautious of the risk of a market correction.
V. Trend Chart Display
VI. Industry Updates Supplement
On the international cost front: On August 17, the settlement price for the September WTI crude oil contract in the U.S. was $84.50 per barrel, up 2.5%; the settlement price for the October Brent crude oil contract was $90.87 per barrel, up 2.6%. The rise in international crude oil prices has strengthened support for gasoline costs.
Chinese independent refinery market: On August 18, the price range for 92# gasoline in the northeastern region of China was 8,600-8,700 CNY/ton, and in the northwestern region, it was 8,700-8,800 CNY/ton, both showing an increase compared to previous quotes.
Policy Orientation: Two departments have released the "15th Five-Year Plan" for oil and gas, proposing that China's oil and gas supply reach 440 million tons of oil equivalent by 2030. They will also study and improve the consumption tax system and pricing mechanism for refined oil products, which will have a long-term impact on the supply and demand as well as the pricing structure of the refined oil market.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
