August 20 news
According to the Xianhuotong AI assistant, on August 19, 2026, the spot quote for China’s 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil for self-collection remained in the range of 5,900–6,400 CNY per ton, with the overall market showing a consolidating trend. The mean-reversion indicator turned from negative to positive compared to the previous day, signaling a divergence in short-term price momentum. From a cyclical price perspective, the 60-day and 3-month cycles are at high levels, while the 1-year cycle is at a mid-to-high level. The risk of volatility within these high-range bands deserves close attention. Meanwhile, the trends of upstream crude oil and other related commodities in the industrial chain may exert a correlated impact on fuel oil prices.
I. Recent Market Performance Review
August 14: The ex-warehouse quote for 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil in the Shanghai region from China National Petroleum Corporation was raised by 100 CNY/ton to 6,000 CNY/ton. Market conditions in China saw a slight increase, with quoted prices remaining in the range of 5,900–6,400 CNY/ton.
August 17-18: The Chinese fuel oil market was consolidating, with the self-pickup quotation range for 180CST low sulfur fuel oil remaining at 5900-6400 CNY/ton. On August 18, the quotation in the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) Qingdao area was 6800 CNY/ton, an increase of 50 CNY/ton from the previous trading day.
August 19: The Chinese fuel oil market continued to consolidate, with the self-pickup price range for 180CST low-sulfur fuel oil remaining at 5900-6400 CNY/ton.
II. Analysis of the Mean Difference Index
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value on August 19 | Value on August 18 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | 22.5 | 11.25 | + |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | 22.5 | 23.75 | - |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | 3.12 | -4.38 | + |
III. Signal Status and Trend Analysis
The current three average difference change direction combinations are (+, -, +), which is a stagnation warning (bearish) signal, and the price trend is judged to be oscillating. Reason: The 5-day and 20-day average differences have expanded positively compared to the previous day, but the 10-day average difference has narrowed. The change directions of the three are not completely consistent, and the short-term price increase momentum is somewhat divergent, with the market entering a phase of oscillatory adjustment.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day price cycle position: High, with limited upside potential;
Price position for the 3-month cycle: High; risk of high-level volatility intensifies.
1 year cycle price position: in the mid-high range, there is still some room for fluctuation, but be wary of the pressure from a high-level correction.
Five, Trend Chart Display
Six, Industrial Chain Correlation Prompt
Fuel oil is upstream related to shale oil and crude oil, and downstream related to diesel, gasoline, and carbon black. Price fluctuations of crude oil upstream and changes in demand downstream may have a direct impact on the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to continuously monitor the market dynamics of upstream and downstream products in China.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
