September 2nd, according to the news,
The current toluene differential signal is strongly rebounding (bullish). In the short term, it is supported by the strengthening of crude oil and tight spot supply, leading to a stronger trend. The price is at a mid-level over a 1-year cycle. In the short term, it has reached a high point in the 60-day/3-month cycle, which limits further upward potential. Overall, it is expected to maintain a volatile but bullish trend.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of August 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Difference (D5) | 166.66 | 80.00 | + |
| 10-day Mean Difference (D10) | -4.33 | -21.33 | + |
| 20-day Mean Difference (D20) | 184.00 | 190.50 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
Three combinations of mean difference change directions are (+, +, -), which belongs to a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current toluene price trend in China is oscillating with a bullish bias. Reason: The directions of the three average differences are not completely consistent, meeting the criteria for an oscillating trend. At the same time, it corresponds to a strong rebound signal under the oscillating category, indicating a short-term bullish direction.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Toluene price tiers are as follows:
60-day cycle: Level 5 (high), with limited short-term upside potential.
3-month cycle: Level 5 (high), with significant upward pressure in this phase.
1 year cycle: Tier 3 (median), with reasonable fluctuation space in the medium term
Five, 1-year price trend chart
Six, Spot Market Dynamics
Price Trend: As of September 1, 2026, the mainstream spot price for toluene in the East China region was RMB 7,550–7,580 per ton, up RMB 200 per ton from the previous trading day. On August 31, the quoted price was RMB 7,300–7,350 per ton, an increase of RMB 100 per ton from the previous trading day. Recently, prices have shown a continuous upward trend.
Influencing factors: On the bullish side, overnight crude oil prices continue to strengthen, and spot supply of Chinese benzene is relatively tight, leading holders to adopt a firm stance and be reluctant to sell. On the bearish side, downstream demand remains weak, creating a short-term tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Seven, Reference of the Industrial Chain in China
Upstream: Naphtha
Downstream: various chemical products such as trimethylbenzene, chlorotrimethylsilane, methylcyclohexane, benzyl chloride, benzaldehyde, TDI, PX, isomeric xylenes, and toluenesulfonic acid.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
