September 2nd news
This analysis is based on the latest butadiene spot data as of September 1, 2026, and integrates a mean difference analysis framework, price tiers, spot dynamics, and industry chain logic to make a comprehensive judgment: The current butadiene mean difference signal is strongly rebounding (bullish, with a rebound nature). In the short term, it is supported by stronger crude oil prices and tight spot supply, leading to a strong trend. The 60-day and 3-month cycle prices are at high levels, while the 1-year cycle is at a moderate level. Downstream rigid demand procurement is showing a strong wait-and-see sentiment, maintaining an overall pattern of high-level oscillation with a bullish bias.
I. Table of Mean Difference Changes
| Mean Deviation Index | Value as of September 1, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Value as of August 31, 2026 (CNY/ton) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Mean Deviation (D5) | 686.66 | 386.66 | + |
| 10-day Mean Deviation (D10) | 203.34 | 103.34 | + |
| 20-day Mean Deviation (D20) | 485.00 | 493.33 | - |
II. Signal Status Determination
Three uniform difference change direction combinations are (+, +, -), which belong to a strong rebound (bullish, rebound nature) signal.
III. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in butadiene prices is oscillatory with a bullish bias. Reason: The three average differences do not change in completely the same direction, meeting the criteria for an oscillatory trend. At the same time, it corresponds to a strong rebound signal under the oscillatory category, and in the short term, it is supported by cost and supply-side benefits, leading to a bullish trend.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
Butadiene price tiers are as follows:
60-day cycle: Level 5 (high), with limited short-term upside potential.
3-month cycle: Level 5 (high), with significant upward pressure in this phase.
1 year cycle: 3rd tier (median), with reasonable fluctuation space in the medium term
Five, 1-year price trend chart
Six, Spot Market Dynamics
Price Trend: As of September 1, 2026, Sinopec’s ex-factory prices for butadiene in East China, North China, and Central China are RMB 13,200 per ton, while the price in South China is RMB 13,100 per ton—up by RMB 600–700 per ton compared to August 31. On the same day, Dongming Petrochemical set a floor price of RMB 13,300 per ton for its 196-ton batch of butadiene intended for external sales, and Satellite Chemical set a starting bid price of RMB 13,200 per ton for its 196-ton batch offered for external sale; both floor prices showed a significant increase from previous levels. On August 31, the CFR China price for butadiene in the Asian market was reported at USD 1,525–1,533 per ton.
Influencing factors: On the positive side, the overnight rally in crude oil prices has boosted sentiment in the spot market. Overall, China's butadiene spot supply remains tight, and holders are strongly inclined to maintain high prices. On the negative side, downstream enterprises generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with insufficient purchasing intentions; they are only placing orders to meet immediate needs, and the supply-demand dynamic continues to remain in a state of tug-of-war.
Seven, Reference of the Industrial Chain in China
Upstream: C4 fraction and naphtha co-produced from ethylene cracking
Downstream: Cyclobutene sulfone, BS resins, MRS resins, styrene-butadiene latex, MBS, K resins, tetrahydrophthalic anhydride, styrene-butadiene rubber, SBS, ABS, chloroprene rubber, nitrile rubber, cis-polybutadiene rubber
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
