September 7 news
September DOP plasticizer prices fluctuated and increased in China
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 7, the DOP price was 9,817.50 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.43% from the DOP price of 9,584.17 CNY/ton on September 1. In September, the DOP market in China continued to recover, with prices maintaining an upward trend, and prices in some regions once again exceeded the 10,000 yuan mark. At the beginning of September, the DOP market showed a "strong rebound" characteristic, then shifted to a "resilient and slightly bullish" fluctuation pattern. The DOP price is at a high level for the past year, but there is still momentum for further increases.
Raw material prices are rising.
September iso-octanol prices fluctuated and increased in China.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 7, the price of 2-ethylhexanol was 9166.67 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.77% from the price of 8833.33 CNY/ton on September 1. The overall operating rate of 2-ethylhexanol in China is 70%, with major facilities running stably; Hualu Hengsheng will undergo planned maintenance for about 20 days starting from September 8, which is expected to reduce the supply of 2-ethylhexanol and provide bullish support to the spot market. High crude oil prices have provided a cost floor, and the upstream propylene market is showing a strong bias, supporting the production costs of 2-ethylhexanol. If crude oil prices fall back, the cost support will weaken marginally, and propylene prices may drop, but there is limited room for further significant increases in propylene. The rise in 2-ethylhexanol prices has increased the cost support for DOP.
September phthalic anhydride prices in China fluctuated and increased.
According to the commodity market analysis system, as of September 7, the price of ortho-phthalic anhydride in China was 9,483.33 CNY/ton, up from 9,400 CNY/ton on September 1, with a price increase of 0.89%. Affected by multiple factors such as rising international oil prices, higher prices of raw materials like ortho-xylene and industrial naphthalene, and reduced supply due to some plant maintenance, the price of ortho-phthalic anhydride rose again at the beginning of September, and the cost support for DOP still exists.
On the cost side: DOP is a cost-transmission-type product—when raw material prices rise, plasticizer manufacturers are passively compelled to follow suit. However, if raw material prices rise too rapidly, downstream buyers may find it difficult to absorb the increased costs, leading to a situation where the profit margins of raw materials and finished products become inverted or significantly compressed. Isooctanol is the key driver behind the recent rise in DOP prices; given the anticipated further increase in iso-octanol prices, the cost support for DOP will intensify.
DOP Market Trend Analysis
Supply side: Industry operating rates see limited improvement.
DOP industry plant load has increased compared to early August, but it has declined compared to late September, with overall supply increments being limited. The spot supply of 2-ethylhexanol continues to tighten, with plant load being low. There are still planned maintenance schedules for later, and the supply outlook remains tight. New production capacities are also being commissioned, with equipment utilization rates remaining low, resulting in relatively adequate overall supply. The processing profits of plasticizer enterprises have been compressed, and some are even experiencing small losses, leading manufacturers to voluntarily slow down their intentions to increase load. Overall, factory inventories are relatively low.
Demand Side: Traditional Peak Season, High Prices Struggle to Pass Through
"Golden September," traditionally a peak season, sees an improvement in the rigid demand for PVC soft products, cable materials, and artificial leather compared to August, with more inquiries, but without explosive orders. The operating rates of downstream manufacturers have increased only slightly, focusing mainly on purchasing according to immediate needs, with little willingness to stockpile. There is a clear resistance to high-priced DOP, making it difficult to pass on price increases, and downstream buyers are hesitant to chase higher prices, which hinders transactions at high prices and limits the potential for further significant increases in DOP prices. "
Market Overview and Future Expectations
Plasticizer product data analysts believe that with high crude oil prices, the overall cost of chemicals is supported, and the maintenance of 2-ethylhexanol plants keeps raw material costs high and firm. The expectation for a strong September season suggests an improvement in downstream demand. This provides greater support for the increase in DOP prices. However, DOP is already at a high level for the year, and downstream acceptance is poor, with little willingness to chase higher prices; if terminal orders do not meet expectations, the strength of the peak season will be insufficient, and there is a risk of DOP prices falling back. In summary, the future DOP market will be characterized by high-level fluctuations supported by costs, with limited room for significant increases and a risk of correction.
