Positive Factors Drive Steady Rise in Normal Butanol Prices in Shandong at the Beginning of April

April 8th News

According to the commodity market analysis system, as of April 8, 2026, the reference price for n-butanol in Shandong, China, was 8,933 CNY/ton. Compared to April 1 (when the reference price for n-butanol was 8,566 CNY/ton), the price increased by 367 yuan, a price increase of 4.28%.

I. Review of Price Trends

In early April (April 1-6), the market price of n-butanol in Shandong showed a slight upward trend, with the price slowly rising from 8,566.67 CNY/ton to 8,600 CNY/ton, with a daily price increase stably at 0.39%, and the overall market was stable. On April 7-8, the price of n-butanol saw a significant jump, with a two-day price increase reaching 3.88%, breaking through 8,900 CNY/ton, and the price center significantly shifted upward, setting a new high for this cycle.

II. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors

Cost Side: Rising raw material prices provide rigid support.

In early April, the price of propylene, the upstream raw material for n-butanol, was driven higher by fluctuations in international crude oil prices, strengthening the cost support for n-butanol. The production cost of n-butanol has rigidly increased, and Chinese companies have a strong desire to push up prices.

Supply and Demand: Robust supply and demand further support market prices in China.

Currently, n-butanol production plant inventories are low in China, with some major plants executing export orders. Market supply is limited, and downstream industries such as coatings, adhesives, resins, and acrylates are making necessary purchases at low prices. There is strong inquiry and transaction activity at low prices, providing strong support for the increase in n-butanol prices.

III. Future Market Forecast

Macro and Supply-Demand Direction Analysis

In the short term (1-2 weeks), the supply-demand balance remains tight, cost support persists, and demand remains robust. As a result, n-butanol prices will likely continue to fluctuate with a generally strong trend, and prices in the Shandong region may further challenge the 9,000 CNY/ton mark. Key factors to watch include the resumption of plant operations, fluctuations in raw material prices, and the pace of downstream procurement. Looking ahead to the medium to long term (late April to May), if new production capacity is gradually brought online and supply pressures ease, prices could experience a temporary pullback. However, given that the second quarter is traditionally peak demand season—and coupled with environmental restrictions on production—price levels will still be supported, resulting in an overall pattern of "high-level volatility."

Technical Analysis

From the spot commodity market analysis system, it can be seen that currently, the 10-day moving average of n-butanol continues to run higher than the 20-day moving average, and the market forecast is in line with an "upward trend."

However, auxiliary indicators show that the current n-butanol price is at a high level among the five levels. Therefore, although it is predicted that the n-butanol price may rise, the price increase will be limited, and it will mainly operate with adjustments at a high level. It is necessary to pay close attention to the fluctuations in crude oil prices, the operation of facilities, and changes in downstream orders.