October 15th, Xinhua News Agency reported
This PVC price analysis is based on the latest publicly available data, with a monitoring cut-off date of October 14, 2026. The mean difference method indicates that the current PVC market is in a weak rebound and slightly bearish oscillation pattern. In the short term, the price is at a high level for both the 60-day and 3-month cycles, with limited upside potential. Over the long term, it is in the lower middle range of the 1-year cycle, with narrowing downside potential. The detailed analysis is as follows:
I. Statistics on Changes in Differences of Means
| Difference Type | Value on October 14, 2026 | Value on October 13, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Difference (D5) | 9.4 | -96 | + |
| 10-Day Difference (D10) | 1.8 | 4.5 | - |
| 20-Day Difference (D20) | 45.45 | 55.3 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
When the directional combination of the three consecutive divided differences matches (+, -, -) compared to the previous day, it constitutes a weak rebound (bearish) signal.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current PVC price trend is judged to be fluctuating (with a bearish bias), due to the fact that the changes in the three average differences from the previous day are not completely consistent, which does not meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend, thus falling into a fluctuation range. Moreover, the corresponding signal is a weak rebound signal of a bearish nature.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day and 3-month cycles: Prices are at high levels, with limited short-term upside.
1 year cycle: The price is at a medium-low level, with relatively limited long-term downward space.
Five, Recent Spot Market Fundamentals Reference in China
On October 14, 2026, the PVC market in the Zibo region remained stable with a slight upward trend, with mainstream quotes for the calcium carbide‑based Grade 5 product at RMB 4,890–4,940 per ton, up RMB 20–30 from the previous trading day. In the Linyi region, PVC prices saw a modest rebound, with mainstream quotes for the same grade at RMB 4,900–4,950 per ton, roughly RMB 30 higher than the prior session. Both markets were dominated by a wait-and-see sentiment, and overall trading activity remained moderate.
The average price of upstream raw material calcium carbide in China on October 14 was 2,540 CNY/ton. The recent continuous decline in prices has weakened the cost support for PVC.
VI. 1-Year Price Trend Chart
Data Explanation
The latest available data is up to October 14, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
