September 16 news
[Key Insight] In the short term, ethanol is in a moderately bearish oscillating pattern with a mild correction. Supply and demand across the upstream and downstream sectors remain stable for now, and overall price fluctuations are limited.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Today's Value (2026.09.15) | Yesterday's Value (2026.09.14) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-day Average Difference (D5) | -1.34 | 1.78 | - |
| 10-day Average Difference (D10) | 20.95 | 24.39 | - |
| 20-day Average Difference (D20) | 22.00 | 20.30 | + |
2. Signal Status Judgment
The current mean difference change combination is (-, -, +), which belongs to a mild pullback (bearish, pullback nature) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
The short-term trend is volatile (slightly bearish). Reason: The directions of change in the three moving averages are not entirely consistent with the previous day, failing to meet the criteria for a clear upward or downward trend; hence, the market is classified as volatile. In addition, with the completion of maintenance at Heilongjiang’s ethanol plants and the resumption of supply, manufacturers such as Henan Hanyong have slightly lowered their quotes for premium-grade ethanol. Moreover, the impact of rising import ethanol prices on the Chinese market has been limited, so prices are expected to experience a mild short-term pullback.
4. Position and Spatial Reference
Ethanol 60-day cycle price is at a high level within the 4th tier (60%-80% range), while 3-month and 1-year cycle prices are at the midpoint of the 3rd tier (40%-60% range). The short-term upside is limited, and the potential for a pullback is also relatively manageable.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
