September 21st, News
This analysis based on the mean difference framework of China's spot gasoline prices shows: the current three mean differences in gasoline prices are all negative compared to the previous day, indicating a clear downward trend. The prices are currently in the high range of the past year's cycle, with limited room for increase. Coupled with the recent continuous weakening of international crude oil and consecutive daily reductions in gasoline quotes from Chinese independent refineries, there is still downward pressure on gasoline prices in the short term.
I. Data Description
The latest available data is up to September 20, 2026, and it is recommended to refer to real-time data.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | Value as of September 20, 2026 | Value as of September 19, 2026 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | -91.43 | -62.00 | - |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | -28.00 | 10.14 | - |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 224.06 | 254.64 | - |
Three, Signal Status Determination
The current three deviations have all changed in a negative direction compared to the previous day, indicating a clear downward signal.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
The current trend in gasoline prices is clearly downward. The reason is that the changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day average differences from the previous day are all negative, which aligns with the criteria for a clear downward trend according to the average difference method.
V. Positional Space Reference
The current gasoline price in China is in the 5th tier (high range) for 60-day, 3-month, and 1-year periods, with limited room for further increase and relatively ample room for decline.
VI. Trend Chart Display
VII. Fundamental Analysis Reference
Cost side: From September 17 to September 20, international crude oil futures closed lower for consecutive sessions, with U.S. WTI crude oil futures falling from $101.91 per barrel to $96.08 per barrel, and the support from the crude oil market for gasoline prices continued to weaken.
Spot market: Since September 17, gasoline quotations from refineries in Northeast and Northwest China have been continuously decreasing. The current national mainstream quotation range for 92# gasoline is 10,100-10,300 CNY/ton, with the actual negotiation space for transactions having expanded.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
