September 23 report:
[Key Takeaway] Ethanol is currently in a short-term, bearish‑biased rebound phase. With the 60-day cycle at elevated levels, it faces near‑term downside pressure; however, constrained imports and plant maintenance provide support, limiting the extent of further declines.
The latest available ethanol price data in China is up to September 22, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data.
1. Average Difference Change Table
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026.09.22 | Value on 2026.09.21 | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | 4.00 | 5.34 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | 3.22 | 2.94 | + |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 19.81 | 22.91 | - |
2. Signal Status Determination
The current three deviation change direction combinations are (-, +, -), which belong to a rebound (bearish) signal.
3. Trend Direction Conclusion
Currently, ethanol prices are trending in a choppy, bearish range. The rationale is that the three moving averages have not all shifted in the same direction compared to the previous day, meeting the criteria for a ranging market. The bearish bias stems from a pullback signal, compounded by the fact that prices remain at elevated levels on the 60-day cycle, creating near-term downward pressure. However, August imports fell sharply by 93.79% month-on-month, COFCO Guangxi’s 200,000-ton ethanol plant is undergoing maintenance, and manufacturers in Henan have slightly raised their quotes—factors that provide some support, limiting the downside.
4. Positional Space Reference
The 1-year cycle price of ethanol is in the 3rd tier (median) out of 5 tiers, and the 60-day cycle price is in the 5th tier (high). The short-term upward potential is limited, with a slight pressure for a pullback, while the medium- to long-term upside and downside potentials are relatively balanced.
5. Trend Chart Display
6. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
