Lack of Clear Positive Guidance, Polyester Staple Fiber Prices Fluctuate Downward in September

September 29, News

According to the commodity market analysis system, the price of polyester staple fiber in China fluctuated downward in September, with the average market price of polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) in China at 6,444 CNY per ton as of September 29, a decrease of 1.39% from the beginning of the month.

The crude oil market is being influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, leading to significant price fluctuations throughout September. As of the 26th, the settlement price for the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the U.S. stood at $65.72 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures settled at $69.22 per barrel. On one hand, geopolitical issues remain a key driver in the oil market, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict continuing to push prices higher. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut has provided a positive boost to the global oil market, further supporting crude oil prices. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia may increase its oil production, while rising U.S. crude inventories, coupled with the end of the peak U.S. driving season, are weighing on the market. Moreover, concerns about the global economic outlook and weakening oil demand are putting downward pressure on crude oil prices.

After a continued decline in China's PTA market throughout September, prices began to stabilize at the bottom. By the end of September, the average market price in East China stood at 4,612 CNY per ton, down 3.01% from the beginning of the month. Concerns over rising crude oil production, expectations of increased PTA supply, and weak demand led to predominantly downward trends in mid-to-late September. However, as the month drew to a close, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict sparked concerns about potential supply disruptions, prompting a rebound in crude oil prices. Meanwhile, downstream industries ramped up pre-holiday inventory preparations, boosting both supply and demand conditions—resulting in a modest recovery in PTA prices from their recent lows.

In September, PTA plants alternated between maintenance shutdowns and restarts, leaving the industry’s operating rate hovering around 77%. Although plant operations remained highly volatile, overall spot supply continued to remain ample, leading to a slight build-up in social inventories. Looking ahead to October, while some planned maintenance activities are still on the horizon, an additional 3 million tons of new PTA capacity is expected to come online as scheduled, further intensifying market supply pressures.

Currently, it is the traditional "Golden September, Silver October" consumption peak season, but downstream yarn factories have not seen the expected significant increase in demand, mainly characterized by rigid demand procurement, and the overall market performance is mediocre, providing limited support to upstream raw materials. Terminal orders have shown a mild recovery, but the order volume is generally average, and due to the high inventory levels, procurement of raw materials is being done cautiously and in small batches. At the end of the month, influenced by the pre-holiday period, some downstream yarn factories made small-scale replenishments, but this trend lacks sustainability.

Analysts believe that the continuous release of new PTA capacities has exacerbated market concerns over oversupply, with weakening cost support. Before the National Day holiday, downstream enterprises in China have largely completed their inventory replenishment, and the market lacks clear positive guidance; it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber in October will trend weaker.