September 24th report:
Price Trend
According to Spotcom data, the recent Chinese PC market has seen a decline from high levels, with spot prices for various grades being reduced. As of September 23, the benchmark price for mixed PC is around 14,950 CNY per ton, down 1.70% from the beginning of the month and 2.71% lower than last week.
Reason Analysis
Supply Side: Since early September, the operating rates of China's PC polymerization enterprises have been moderate. The overall industry load rate is around 75%. The production loss gap is stable, with the current weekly output slightly over 60,000 tons, and the shipping fluency of polymerization plants is acceptable. In addition, a recent line sweeping task at Rongsheng Petrochemical has been completed, and some capacity has returned. Luxi Chemical has reduced its load, with both operations and maintenance occurring in the industry, resulting in limited overall supply impact. With the major maintenance at Wanhua Chemical not yet completed, the overall support from the supply side for PC is still manageable.
Raw Material Perspective: As shown in the chart above, China’s bisphenol A market has been on a broad upward trend since early September. However, crude oil prices—the key upstream input—have recently plunged. Meanwhile, Iran’s president is scheduled to travel to the U.S. on September 22 to attend a meeting, and U.S. President Trump has publicly stated his willingness to meet with his Iranian counterpart. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to mediators for resuming negotiations, signaling a substantive diplomatic thaw in the ongoing U.S.–Iran standoff. Consequently, market sentiment has shifted from “supply‑disruption panic” to “de‑escalation and supply restoration,” prompting phenol prices to follow suit and decline. Although spot supplies remain relatively tight and both producers and traders hold healthy inventories, BPA spot prices are at elevated levels amid subdued market expectations. We anticipate that BPA spot prices may come under downward pressure, thereby weakening overall support for PC cost levels.
Demand Side: As we enter late September, purchasing activity at downstream PC manufacturers still shows no clear signs of a seasonal uptick. End‑user capacity utilization remains subdued, and demand for products such as sheet‑molded casings is modest. Although earlier, the tight balance between PC supply and demand had supported higher price quotations from sellers, buyers have remained reluctant to pay premium prices. Coupled with lackluster pre‑holiday restocking, trading volumes remain sluggish, market sentiment is decidedly cautious, and buyers are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Overall, demand is providing weak support for spot PC prices.
Future Market Prediction
Recently, the Chinese PC market has seen a decline from high levels. Upstream bisphenol A prices have been consolidating at high levels, but the cost support for PC from the far end has significantly weakened, leading to a bearish outlook. The operating rates of Chinese PC polymerization plants are still acceptable, with limited changes in future supply. Market transactions are mainly driven by weak rigid demand, and pre-holiday inventory restocking operations are scarce. Currently, the supply and demand for PC are relatively balanced, but the negative impact of raw materials from the far end is gradually being felt. Analysts believe that PC may follow the decline in upstream prices in the short term and suggest closely monitoring crude oil and demand.
