September 9 news
In early September, the rubber industry chain as a whole showed a strong increase in costs, with most varieties rising, except for a few raw materials that weakened. The price increase of upstream raw material butadiene was particularly noticeable, providing strong cost support for synthetic rubber, and various finished rubber products followed the upward trend; only acrylonitrile prices were under pressure and declined, becoming the only weaker variety in the industry chain. Overall, market trading sentiment has improved, but the recovery of terminal demand is limited, and there is a clear divergence in supply and demand.
| Variety | September 1 | September 8 | Monthly Change Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Rubber SCRWF | 18,125 | 18,741 | 3.40% |
| Butadiene Rubber | 15,180 | 15,940 | 5.01% |
| Styrene-butadiene Rubber 1502 | 15,266 | 15,958 | 4.53% |
| Nitrile Rubber | 17,450 | 18,000 | 3.15% |
| Butadiene | 13,333 | 14,333 | 7.50% |
| Styrene | 9,460 | 9,900 | 4.65% |
| Acrylonitrile | 11,433 | 10,583 | -2.70% |
| Carbon Black N220 | 9,142 | 9,885 | 8.12% |
Middle East conflict risks are intensifying, pushing Brent crude oil towards $100 per barrel. The prices of the entire crude oil-naphtha-butadiene-styrene chain have risen, and with tight butadiene supplies, this has directly increased the production costs of synthetic rubbers such as polybutadiene and styrene-butadiene rubber. Natural rubber prices have also risen due to supply and demand factors, leading to a warmer market expectation for price increases. However, orders in the downstream tire and rubber products industries have not seen a significant increase, and companies are still mainly purchasing to meet immediate needs, showing a weak willingness to chase higher prices. The terminal demand is unable to sustain the upstream price hikes, which is the core factor suppressing the market's upward trend.
The supply gap caused by earlier maintenance has been largely closed, and plants are resuming production in a concentrated manner. Coupled with weak demand from the two major downstream sectors—ABS and acrylic fiber—and downstream resistance to high prices, as well as the absence of large-scale restocking, supply and demand have shifted from tight to loose, driving down acrylonitrile prices. The long-term root cause lies in rapid capacity expansion outpacing the growth rate of downstream consumption.
Market Outlook: In the short term, the rubber industry chain will likely remain in a relatively strong and volatile pattern, supported by rising raw material costs. The tight supply situation upstream is unlikely to ease quickly in the near term, meaning synthetic rubber will continue to be under cost support, while natural rubber also has some room for upward movement. However, given that terminal demand has yet to show any substantial improvement, there’s insufficient momentum for prices to keep surging. As a result, the pace of future price increases may slow down, and there’s a risk of a pullback from current high levels. The weak trend in acrylonitrile is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Overall, during the mid-to-late September period, the industry chain will probably continue its cost-driven, volatile trading pattern. Going forward, it’ll be crucial to closely monitor downstream operating rates as well as the arrival status of upstream raw materials.
