The price of methanol fluctuates frequently

September methanol phase of the market has risen more than 400 points, the strong macro atmosphere and the fundamentals of the recent long in the state of victory.  With the beginning of the terminal stock in some areas, the substantial increase in the price of receiving goods has made this week's major production areas in the mainland began to raise the offer significantly, but the buying spirit did not weaken.  Supply side reduction is still continuing, coal tension, double control, environmental protection and expected future gas limit, making methanol futures 01 contract beyond imagination strong.

Low inventory, low profit and the continuous environmental protection, double control, production limit situation make the strong mainland is difficult to change, and the port area due to slow pilotage, typhoon and other factors, cargo detention, slow unloading, also make the coastal reservoir is less than expected.  The uncertainty of all kinds of news makes the futures table show high volatility, each big pullback is accompanied by another bull counterattack.  A sharp correction on Friday afternoon has made many short orders stop profit or loss, the panic of short sentiment made the night trading began to rebound sharply, and this morning broke a new high to 3144 CNY/ton.  Before the deadline, the market was again affected by the uncertainty of MTO news, sharply retraced to 3049 CNY/ton close.  

The problem of production reduction at the upstream supply side is still continuing, while the price of downstream does not rise as fast as methanol, which makes the product profits shrink rapidly. In addition, the difficult situation of MTO, will it be gradually transmitted upward?  In the traditional downstream, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong today is about 1375 CNY/ton, the cost of formaldehyde is around 1407.5 CNY/ton, and the profit of local manufacturers is about 32.5 CNY/ton, which has turned into a loss state.  Although the current start of formaldehyde is stable, but if the loss space continues to expand, the lowest threshold of formaldehyde will not exclude the profit situation and adjust the start of formaldehyde at any time, thus affecting the demand.  

For MTO plants in Zhejiang province, the extractable ethylene is much better than methanol to olefin.  According to the northeast Asian ethylene price of $1080 / ton on Friday, corresponding to the price level near the extractable methanol price of 2450 CNY/ton;  Today taicang spot 2970-3010 CNY/ton solid single transaction, advantage price difference 540 CNY/ton.  According to lonlot ethylene analyst said, although September to November in northeast Asia ethylene overhaul season, South Korea many sets of equipment maintenance plans, ethylene exports to China also decreased, but according to the recent downstream major consumption areas of large plant plant dynamics, the same period of domestic ethylene volume is expected to increase.  The maintenance plans of the supply end and the downstream of some factories in East China do not match. Although the domestic ethylene spot price is still rising at present, in the medium and long term, the situation of tight spot supply may gradually ease, and the domestic ethylene price is expected to decline in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter.  Therefore, ethylene outer disk space still need dynamic tracking.  

In the context of continued stocking, the strength of the mainland market is unsolved, and will support the port market and inventory to a certain extent.  Whether and when imports can flow back becomes a crucial point.  At present, the price of goods in some parts of Shandong has been flat with taicang spot, if the mainland continues to pull up strongly, then once the backflow space is opened, the port market will also be difficult to have a larger drop.  Today afternoon futures callback, Taicang spot business daily plate firm, low prices do not want to ship, long-term paper goods base also narrow strong.  Caution is recommended under high volatility, with both benefits and risks. However, in the remaining trading days of 2021, the mainland may be stronger than the port for a long time.