October 16th, news
Recently, the PVC spot market has followed a pattern of initial gains followed by a pullback. In early October, prices rose in tandem with futures volatility, but turned weaker in mid‑month. As of October 15, spot quotes in key markets such as Linyi, China, were down 20–40 CNY per ton compared with the previous trading day, amid a pronounced wait-and-see sentiment and generally subdued trading activity. According to quantitative analysis based on the mean‑deviation method, PVC prices have now entered a clear downtrend; in the short term, price levels remain near the upper end of a three‑month cycle, with limited upside potential, while over the longer one‑year horizon, prices are hovering at the mid‑to‑low range, supported by some downside resilience. Market participants largely adopt a wait-and-see stance.
I. Statistics on Changes in Differences of Means
| Average Difference Type | Value on 2026-10-15 | Value on 2026-10-14 | Direction of Change vs. Previous Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Average Difference (D5) | -30.00 | 9.40 | - |
| 10-Day Average Difference (D10) | -14.00 | 1.80 | - |
| 20-Day Average Difference (D20) | 32.55 | 45.45 | - |
II. Signal State Determination
The current situation is a clear signal of decline.
III. Conclusions on Trend Directions
The current PVC price trend is clearly downward.
Judgment Reason: The 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day differences all show a negative change compared to the previous day, with all three moving in the same direction, meeting the criteria for a clear downward trend as determined by the difference method. At the same time, on October 15th, the main market prices in China declined following the futures market's pullback, with the market experiencing low trading activity, which corroborates the quantitative signals.
IV. Positional Spatial Reference
60-day and 3-month cycle prices are at a medium-high level in China, with limited short-term upside potential;
1 year cycle price is in the middle to low range, with limited room for long-term decline.
V. Price Trends Over the Past Year
VI. Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
