August 28th news
In August, the natural rubber market experienced volatile upward trends. Data showed that as of August 27, the spot price of natural rubber in China was around 17,791 CNY per ton, up 7.94% from the beginning of the month when it stood at 16,483 CNY per ton. The battle between bulls and bears remained intense; while rising raw material costs provided support, weak actual demand from downstream sectors constrained the extent to which prices could rise.
Southeast Asia has already entered the peak rubber tapping season, but rainfall has disrupted the tapping rhythm, and the release of raw materials has not met expectations, with Thai cup lump rubber maintaining a high price of 70 Thai baht per kilogram. In China's Hainan and Yunnan production areas, there has been more rainfall, and processors are rushing to purchase raw materials, leading to tight spot supply.
Inventory levels at the port have slightly declined. As of August 23, 2026, the total inventory volume of natural rubber in the Qingdao area—comprising both bonded and general trade inventories—stood at 631,500 tons, representing a decrease of 1.65%. Inventory continues to decline gradually, yet imports from overseas remain on the rise, keeping overall inventory levels still relatively high.
The tire industry is in a traditional off-season. Sample enterprises have a full steel tire operation rate of 64.15%, and a semi-steel tire operation rate of 65.81%. The semi-steel tire operation rate has decreased by 6.06% year-over-year. Downstream enterprises are mainly engaged in rigid demand procurement, with little willingness to actively replenish inventory, and there is significant resistance to high-priced transactions. The market is trading on the expectation of a peak season in "Golden September and Silver October," but actual terminal orders have not yet improved substantially, making it difficult to drive a sustained increase in rubber prices.
Outlook:
From a technical perspective: Since the low point in late July, rubber prices in August have rebounded, rising above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, with the short-term moving averages showing a bullish pattern, indicating a strong trend. The previous correction was sufficient, and a bottom has been formed at a low level, providing ample momentum for a short-term rebound. However, there is resistance from the previous consolidation range, making it difficult to break through directly in the short term. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be characterized by an upward oscillation. If the price stabilizes above the short-term moving averages, there is still room for further increases; if it falls below the 10-day moving average, it will re-enter a period of consolidation, and the effectiveness of the moving average support should be closely monitored.
Fundamentally, the price of natural rubber will remain in a high range with fluctuations in the short term. Due to the constraints of actual demand, the upward breakout space is limited; on the other hand, supported by raw material costs, the downward space is also limited. It is important to closely monitor the weather in Southeast Asia, tire production, and inventory changes in Qingdao. If rainfall continues in the production areas, there is a possibility of a price surge.
