October 30 News Curve Comparison Chart
According to Spotcom data: The average price of LLDPE (7042) on October 1st was 9,390 CNY/ton, and on October 29th it was 10,250 CNY/ton, an increase of 9.16%. The average price of LDPE (2426H) on October 1st was 12,133 CNY/ton, and on October 29th it was 12,766 CNY/ton, an increase of 5.22%. The average price of HDPE (5000S) on October 1st was 10,475 CNY/ton, and on October 29th it was 11,150 CNY/ton, an increase of 6.44%. Overall, the trend of polyethylene in China showed a rapid increase in the first ten days, a sharp rise followed by a fluctuation in the middle of the month, and a significant rebound at the end of the month.
China's polyethylene supply was initially tight but later eased. In the early part of the month, concentrated maintenance led to a reduction in output, tightening the availability of goods and supporting the first wave of rapid price increases. In the middle of the month, maintenance facilities gradually restarted, coupled with the release of new capacity, leading to an increase in supply, which put pressure on prices and caused a correction. In the latter part of the month, petrochemical companies actively controlled volumes and reduced inventory to support prices, tightening the availability of spot goods and driving another rebound in the market.
Agricultural film: Production has resumed and is trending upward, but with raw material prices remaining high, compression‑product margins are under pressure. Downstream buyers are reluctant to stockpile, opting instead for just‑in‑time procurement, which has led to a slowdown in the growth of new orders—still weaker year over year. Packaging film: Pre‑holiday stocking ahead of Double 11 has generated a temporary surge in orders, though their sustainability is limited; following recent raw‑material price hikes, most packaging manufacturers are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Crude oil volatility is the primary driver of polyethylene cost dynamics: in the first half of the month, rising oil prices pushed up oil‑based PE costs, creating room for price hikes. In the middle of the month, a pullback in oil prices weakened cost support, leading to volatile downward pressure on the market. By the end of the month, a renewed rebound in crude oil provided bottom‑line support; however, stable costs for coal‑based feedstocks capped the extent of any further price increases.
The peak season for agricultural films is gradually coming to an end, with supply continuing to increase, leading to rising supply and demand pressures. Oil prices provide a bottom support, but it is unlikely to further drive significant increases. It is expected that polyethylene will likely remain in a high-level fluctuation overall.
