November 3rd, according to news,
Key takeaway: As of November 2, 2026, the latest urea data show that prices have been trending strongly over the short term. The deviations across all three cycles are moving upward in tandem, triggering a clear bullish signal. Current prices are at the lower end of the 60-day/three-month cycle and around the midpoint of the one-year cycle. Coupled with an optimized futures delivery mechanism and steady-to‑higher pricing from Chinese producers, the probability is high that the market will remain strong in the near term.
I. Data Description
The latest available urea market data in China is up to November 2, 2026. It is recommended to refer to real-time data for accuracy.
II. Table of Finite Differences
| Mean Difference Indicator | (2026.11.2) | (2026.11.1) | Direction of Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day Mean Difference (D5) | 5.00 | 3.00 | + |
| 10-Day Mean Difference (D10) | 5.50 | 3.50 | + |
| 20-Day Mean Difference (D20) | 2.37 | 2.12 | + |
III. Signal State Determination
The current trigger indicates a clear upward signal.
IV. Conclusion on Trend Direction
Urea prices are currently showing a clear upward trend. Reason: The changes in the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages compared to the previous day are all positive and consistent, fully meeting the criteria for a clear upward trend according to the moving average method.
Five, Position and Spatial Reference
Urea 60-day cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), 3-month cycle price is in the 2nd tier (lower-middle), and 1-year cycle price is in the 3rd tier (middle): with short-term lower-middle support, there is still some room for price increase, and there is no significant top pressure in the 1-year middle tier.
6. 1-Year Trend Chart Display
VII. Industry News
Factory price update: On November 2, 2026, the latest factory price of medium-granular urea from Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. was 1755 CNY per ton, with stable prices and negotiable actual transactions; on October 30, the factory price of urea from Shandong Ruixing Chemical was 1710 CNY per ton, with an increase in price.
Overseas Policy: On October 28, 2026, South Korea announced the lifting of the ban on hoarding urea and urea solution, leading to a stabilization of overseas urea inventories and supply.
Futures Rule Adjustment: On October 30, 2026, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the addition of Sichuan Agricultural Materials and Apex Holdings as designated delivery factory pick-up points for urea. The "group delivery, nearest pick-up" mechanism will be implemented in non-benchmark delivery regions. The relevant business operations will take effect from the date of the announcement.
Eight, Risk Warning
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice.
