Glacial acetic acid market analysis in September

Since the beginning of August, the domestic acetic acid market changed the early sharp decline trend and gradually restored stability. Although there are small regional ups and downs, the overall trend is stable. At present, it has entered the traditional peak season "Golden nine" period, but the acetic acid market has changed the early peak season bullish prices. Market regional quotation exists deviation, bring about market operator each view differ.

1. Stable and sufficient supply

From August to now, domestic acetic acid utilization rate remains at 76%-84%, with narrow fluctuation range. Enterprise inventory maintained between 100,000 tons and 120,000 tons, basically in a rational position fluctuation. Although some domestic acetic acid units have been under maintenance since August, and some units have failed unplanned. After guangxi Huayi 500,000 tons/year acetic acid plant was put into operation in July, the change of plant had little impact on acetic acid market. Acetic acid market has been out of the original seller's market initiative, the supply side is still in sufficient and stable state.

2. Demand rational wait-and-see

The downstream industry operating rate of acetic acid fluctuates frequently. However, the time between high and low starts is relatively small and not continuous. Various industries operating rate rise and fall to hedge, most of the time operating rate to maintain a rational position. In addition, the downstream procurement contract of acetic acid accounted for a relatively high proportion, and some factories mainly supplied by themselves. Therefore, maintaining the mainstream downstream industry demand fluctuations are relatively narrow, bringing a very limited impact on the acetic acid market.

3. Export growth has become the norm

By July 2021, China's acetic acid exports totaled 527,200 tons, up 73.14% compared with the same period in 2020. In 2021, China's total acetic acid export volume increased significantly compared to the same period, and from April to August, China's monthly acetic acid export volume is basically between 70,000-130,000 tons. This would have been a clear boon on the demand side. But export increases have become the norm since April 2021. And after Guangxi Huayi acetic acid plant was put into operation in July, the impact of export volume on the domestic market is no longer obvious. The increase in demand for exports is not enough to offset the increase in domestic supply. Therefore, the current export situation is mainly rational for domestic, there is no obvious supporting role.

Summary of main changing factors of Acetic acid market in China in September:

(1) From the beginning of September, shandong will carry out environmental protection inspection for 25-30 days. Some downstream plants of local acetic acid are affected by power restriction and gas shortage. Downstream purchasing demand is limited, and there are uncertainties in downstream demand and pre-holiday stock in Shandong in late September.

(2) China's acetic acid exports in September are expected to have little difference from July to August. Whether September acetate export rhythm concentrated digestion of a wave of inventory is still expected. At the same time, the foreign ship into the river time and shipping date and other circumstances are uncertain, whether to bring support to September market for the time being conservative.

(3) By September, most factories in China have finished or are undergoing overhaul. However, the Shandong manufacturer has not carried out annual inspection at present, and only had a short stop to replace the catalyst in the early stage. In addition, the recent demand of some downstream regions in Shandong is limited. Whether shandong manufacturers have clear maintenance plans in the middle and late September has become the biggest factor changing acetic acid market.