Ethylene oxide has been trending well recently

In September, the ethylene oxide market rebounded after a small drop, increasing by 700 CNY/ton since the low point in the month.  In terms of this wave of "golden nine" market, seizing is the peak season, missing is the off-season?  "Gold nine" market is coming to an end, "silver ten" market how to deduce?

Compared with the historical data in previous years, it is not difficult to find that the market trend of ethylene oxide from January to August in 2019 and 2021 is very similar, but when it comes to September, the market prices of the two years begin to show a big difference.  Reviewing the history, in 2019, ethylene oxide market supply is strong and weak, "gold nine" deduce into "copper nine" market.  

In 2021, the situation completely exceeded expectations. Under the influence of force majeure factors, the market spot supply continued to shrink. Under the strong support of the fundamental situation, the ethylene oxide market rebounded after a small drop.  And when it comes to October market can continue the September rally, can achieve the "silver ten" market, industry views are different.  

At present, the fundamental factors of supply and demand in the ethylene oxide market have completely risen to the dominant position, and the impact of the cost side has weakened.  It is reported that power rationing policies in some areas will continue after the National Day holiday, and the tight supply situation in the ethylene oxide market is expected to continue until the middle and late October.  

And the main downstream polycarboxylic acid plasticizer monomer industry starting load is also affected by varying degrees, factory inventory to maintain low, some businesses are still higher sentiment.  But part of the industry reflects that the Mid-Autumn festival holiday eve, customers have been stocked, the current high price of new orders to follow up relatively slowly, a small number of just need to go single.  

To sum up, short-term supply and demand fundamentals support the ethylene oxide market will continue to maintain a stable and positive trend.  But in the middle of October, with the restart of the device, supply recovery, market supply and demand contradiction will gradually highlight, the market may face a turning point risk.  As a result, the ethylene oxide market is expected to have limited upside in October, but the overall performance is substantial compared to the same period in 2019.