Butoctanol market ushered in a rebound

In September, due to downstream power restrictions, the market price of butanol dropped sharply to its lowest point in the past six months in a short period of time. The octanol market trend in October continued to be affected by demand.

After the power curtailment policies in various places were eased, the slow increase in downstream demand gave the butanol market the center of gravity to rebound. As of October 30, the Shandong n-butanol market was 10,500 CNY/ton, up 7.14% from September 30, and Shandong octanol was 13,500 CNY/ton, up 12.50% from the end of September.

Chart 1

From the perspective of downstream start-ups, in the last week of October, the start-up of the downstream butyl esters of n-butanol increased to a higher level during the year. The butyl acrylate plant increased production capacity in early October, and the operating rates of butyl acetate and DBP products continued at the end of this month.

Increase the load, and the weekly operating rate of propyl butyl ester dropped to 42% at the lowest in September, and the operating rate of butyl acetate dropped to 20%. At present, the operating rates of the two downstream products of n-butanol have increased significantly compared with those in late September. DBP products are in the peak season of industry demand, and the operating rates of the industry have also increased compared with September.

Chart 2

The demand for octanol downstream plasticizers is increasing this month. From the perspective of the two major downstream operations, the operating rate of the DOTP industry has increased significantly, and the operating rate of DOP has increased slightly. At present, the operating rate of the two major downstream octanols has returned to a medium level during the year.

Due to the electricity curtailment policies in Shandong, Zhejiang and other regions, some plasticizer devices will be produced in stages within this month. The profitability of the downstream DOTP industry has improved significantly, which will be conducive to the resumption of work and production of the plasticizer device after the end of the electricity curtailment.

The negative effects of the short-term electricity policy on the demand for butanol have been gradually exhausted. With the recovery of major downstream demand, market participants have improved their mentality. As the supply side of the market has also increased this month, most buying orders remain rigid.

After the early market oversold, the n-butanol market activity atmosphere was active, which formed a positive stimulus to the octanol market, and the short-term market chased up to drive the focus of the butanol market upward. The electricity curtailment policies in various regions in November are temporarily unclear, and the downstream manufacturers are cautious in chasing the rise.

There are uncertain factors in whether the market can return to a strong state during the year. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in November.