Coke Market in October Showed Strong Performance with Price Increases Implemented

October 31 News

I. Price Trends

According to the commodity market analysis system: On October 31, 2025, the average price was 1,426 CNY per ton. In October 2025, the Chinese coke market showed a steady and slightly strong trend, with overall upward prices.

II. Market Analysis

Price Perspective: In October, coking coal prices were bolstered by cost support from metallurgical coal and driven by steel mills' restocking demand, leading to a cumulative price increase of 100–110 CNY per ton. For instance, the price of Shanxi Grade-1 dry-quenched coke exceeded the 1,600 CNY/ton mark in October. Meanwhile, the coking market successfully implemented two rounds of price hikes during the month. Strong cost support persisted as tight supply conditions continued in the metallurgical coal market, exacerbated by increasingly stringent safety and environmental inspections at coal mines. This sustained supply constraint pushed metallurgical coal prices higher, directly raising coking enterprises' costs for furnace coal inputs—and providing significant bottom-up support for coking coal prices.

Supply Side: Affected by environmental production limits and profit contraction, the supply side has tightened. The operating rates of coking plants in China have continued to decline, leading to a slight reduction in coke supply.

Demand Side: Immediate needs are supporting short-term prices. Although steel terminal demand remains weak, blast furnace operating rates at steel plants remain high, creating a rigid need for restocking coke. After the National Day holiday, steelmakers' available days of coke inventory have declined, further intensifying the restocking demand.

Cost Side: The cost of coke is primarily influenced by factors such as the price of coking coal (the raw material), production conditions at coking plants, and demand from downstream steel mills. In October, due to disruptions like coal mine shutdowns during the National Day holiday, post-holiday overproduction inspections, and the arrival of a central safety-production inspection team, coking coal supply tightened, driving prices higher. As a result, the price of S1 prime coking coal in Lüliang, Shanxi, has risen by a cumulative 150 CNY/ton since its September low, while coke prices increased by 100–130 CNY/ton. Overall, coke prices have also followed an upward trend.

III. Market Forecast

Coke analysts believe: For the trend in November, the market generally expects a pattern of being strong first and then weak. In the first ten days of November, supported by tight coking coal supply and the rigid demand from steel mills, coke prices are expected to remain stable and slightly strong. However, after entering the middle of the month, as steel demand enters the seasonal off-season and the profit pressure on steel mills intensifies, it may trigger a wave of production cuts, at which point coke prices will come under downward pressure.