The declining caustic soda market began to stabilize and recover gradually

This week's falling Caustic Soda market began to stabilize and rebound. On April 15, the transaction price of solid caustic soda in Northwest China (hereinafter referred to as Tablet Alkali) was 2400 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 100-200 yuan from last week.

"At the beginning of this month, the price of caustic soda has been continuously lowered. Many enterprises have been on the edge of loss. Some enterprises have advanced the spring inspection plan to April, and the inventory has been greatly reduced, which has led to the steady recovery of the Caustic Soda market this week. In the future, the supply is expected to decrease and the price of caustic soda is expected to rise in the short term. Longzhong information chlor-alkali analyst Ankang analysis that.

Caustic soda is mainly used in ALUMINA, viscose staple fibers, chemical industry, printing and dyeing industries. On the whole, the demand of the downstream industry is shrinking and it is difficult to support the caustic soda market. However, with the effective reduction of domestic alumina production cost, the alumina market is expected to improve.

According to Zong Xueliang, an information analyst at Zhuochuang, the start-up rate of alumina has dropped from 88% after the year to 85% at present, and the start-up rate of viscose staple fibers has dropped from 81% after the year to 72% at present. In chemical industry, after the "3.21" explosion, the safety and environmental protection inspection of the whole eastern region tended to be strict, and the start-up rate decreased significantly. Printing and dyeing industry is affected by environmental protection supervision, and the start-up rate has been low.

"Alumina is the largest downstream of caustic soda, accounting for about 32% of its total consumption. Because of the shortage of bauxite ore in China, the alumina factories in Henan and Shanxi are reducing their stocks to reduce the purchase of raw materials, which has driven the price of caustic soda down continuously. In addition, downstream electrolytic aluminium has been lowered to the same price as alumina, and most domestic alumina manufacturers hope to make profits by reducing raw material procurement costs. However, because of the shortage of bauxite ore supply and the need to meet domestic demand through imports, there is little room for price compression. Therefore, enterprises can only reduce costs by lowering the price of raw caustic soda. Ankang said. According to Ankang, tablets are mainly concentrated in northwest provinces such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Most of the liquid alkali produced by chlor-alkali enterprises in these areas will be processed into sheets of alkali and transported to eastern and southern China. In the early period, the price of caustic soda fell, and the most obvious decline was in Northwest China. Shandong is the largest liquid alkali producing area in China. At present, several large local alumina manufacturers have reduced the purchase price of caustic soda by 20-30 yuan. The production cost of alumina in China has been effectively reduced. It is expected that the alumina market will tend to improve in the later period. According to Zong Xueliang, the start-up rate of caustic soda enterprises has been maintained at 84%-85% year after year. Because of the shrinking demand and high supply, the imbalance between supply and demand is aggravated. At present, the enterprise has advanced the spring maintenance plan to April, which will alleviate the supply pressure of caustic soda market to a certain extent, the imbalance between supply and demand or alleviate the contradiction.

"Caustic soda basically comes from the electrolysis of raw salt, which will produce liquid chlorine and other by-products. Therefore, the price of liquid chlorine directly affects the start-up rate of caustic soda. On April 9, the local mainstream ex-factory price of liquid chlorine for tankers in Shandong was 200-300 yuan. If the price is higher, the downstream of liquid chlorine will be conflicting because it can not be eaten. For this reason, the price of liquid chlorine or steady downward, the start-up rate of caustic soda will also be reduced. However, in the early stage of the caustic soda price decline, the downstream gradually recognized the price, rigid demand will be released one after another, forming support for the caustic soda market. Zong Xueliang said. The main factors affecting the cost of caustic soda include the price of electricity, raw salt and transportation. Among them, electricity is the biggest cost, which will not be greatly adjusted due to the influence of national regulation and control; the proportion of raw salt in caustic soda cost is relatively small, and the supply of several major salt ponds in China is sufficient and the price is stable; after the Spring Festival, the transport price is basically stable. The stable price of electricity, raw salt and transportation provides support for the price of caustic soda.

"At present, the northwest caustic soda producers have a stable price intention, and the overall price is expected to stabilize and recover by the end of April. However, as demand has not improved significantly, the caustic soda market is still weak in the long run.