Under the Dual-carbon Background, the Upstream Raw Materials Soared by 800%!

01 The new energy sector took off on the spot, and the prices of related chemicals rose by 800%

At present, China's new energy vehicle penetration rate has reached 17.8%, of which the penetration rate of the new energy passenger vehicle market has reached 19.8%. According to such a momentum, it is expected to achieve the mid- and long-term planning goal of 20% market share in 2025 ahead of schedule. This also means The industry has entered the fast lane.

The industrial chain of Lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, PVDF and other chemicals have all been driven, the market continues to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs.

R142b: Benefiting from the growth of downstream demand for lithium batteries, PVDF is used as a positive electrode binder for lithium batteries. R142b, as the main raw material for PVDF production, has risen in the same direction. However, domestic production capacity is insufficient. Up to now, the mainstream quotations in Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have risen to around 175,000 to 180,000 CNY/ton, which can be said to be an increase of 800% from the 20,000 CNY/ton that was possible at the beginning of the year.

PVDF: The current mainstream price range of lithium battery PVDF is 400-430 thousand CNY/ton, which is 263% higher than the price of 110 thousand CNY/ton at the beginning of the year. The price of paint-grade PVDF has also reached 350-36 million CNY/ton. The mainstream price range of photovoltaic-grade PVDF is 290-310 thousand CNY/ton. It is worth mentioning that the downstream power battery-grade PVDF is just in demand by the market, and the purchasing mentality of enterprises is positive.

Yellow phosphorus: Due to power curtailment in Yunnan and other regions, the price of yellow phosphorus rose from about 20,000 CNY/ton in July this year to 56,000 CNY/ton in early October, an increase of 239% from the beginning of the year.

Phosphoric acid: The price of phosphoric acid has also risen from around 7,000 CNY/ton in July to around 18,000 CNY/ton in early October. The price has risen linearly, up 280% from the beginning of the year.

Lithium carbonate: from about 40,000 CNY/ton in January this year to the current 185,000 CNY/ton, the price has risen by about 360%, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is also close to 200,000 CNY/ton, which can be said to be one day One price.

Lithium hydroxide: The current quotation has exceeded 180,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 267% from the beginning of the year. The domestic market transaction price of battery-grade coarse-grained lithium hydroxide is between 189,000 and 192,000 CNY/ton, and the price of fine-powder-grade lithium hydroxide is 19.7- Between 200,000 CNY/ton, both hit a new high during the year. The dual impact of unabated downstream demand and high lithium carbonate prices supported the lithium hydroxide market.

Lithium hexafluorophosphate: Since the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen from 105,000 CNY/ton to about 535,000 CNY/ton at present, a record high in the past five years, an increase of 410%. Currently, the market for lithium hexafluorophosphate is in short supply, and many companies have no goods to sell. Some companies have stopped quoting externally, and some companies have chosen to sell by gram. The price per catty exceeds 800 yuan, corresponding to 1.6 million yuan per ton.

Lithium iron phosphate: Stimulated by events such as Tesla's announcement to expand the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate has increased significantly this year, and the price has also risen sharply. Wind data shows that since October, the price of lithium iron phosphate has exceeded 80,000 CNY/ton, while the data as of October 27 shows that the price of lithium iron phosphate is 87,000 CNY/ton, compared with the 38,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year. Ton increased by 130%

02 Photovoltaic boom is extremely high, and demand drove some chemicals to rise 225%

In most parts of the world, the cost per kilowatt-hour of photovoltaic power is extremely economical and competitive. At the same time, because of its low impact on the ecological environment, abundant construction scenarios (deserts and roofs can be installed), and short construction period (3-4 months) ), has become the energy type with the highest proportion of newly installed capacity. Since 2021, although the cost of photovoltaic systems has risen significantly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials (the PPA electricity price of photovoltaic projects continues to rise), in the context of the sharp increase in global energy costs, photovoltaics are still one of the most cost-effective energy types.

Domestic policies such as carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, and the highest guidelines of the dual-carbon goals have driven the photovoltaic industry to a very high degree of prosperity. There is no doubt about the certainty of growth. This is important for chemicals such as EVA resin, silicone, silicon, and soda ash. Pound is good.

Silicon material: I want to ask who is the most profitable in the photovoltaic industry this year? Who is the silicon material house? Due to the imbalance between the supply and demand of silicon materials, since 2021, the price of domestic silicon materials has risen fiercely, from less than 80,000 yuan per ton to about 260,000 yuan, a price increase of 225%.

Silicone: The price of silicone, which has been rising wildly, hit a high of 64,200 yuan on the first day after the National Day. In the second half of the month, the power restriction eased and downstream demand was sluggish, and the silicone market started to fall. Potential. The current DMC market price is 52,000 yuan. Even if the price drops, it has risen by 150% from the beginning of the year. In addition, Dow Silicones products will rise 35%-95% from November 1. From November 1st, WACKER Chemie raised the price of its polymer emulsions, redispersible latex powders and solid resins by up to 20%.

Soda ash: At present, the average ex-factory price of domestic light soda ash is 3652 CNY/ton, an increase of 133% from the price of 1566 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year.

EVA resin: The current domestic foam material price is about 21,000 CNY/ton, the cable material price is about 2,200-23,000 CNY/ton, and the photovoltaic material is about 21,000 CNY/ton or more. The price of EVA resin has increased by more than 100% compared with the beginning of the year, which has reached history. The highest level.

POE materials: The current market quotation is between 20,000 yuan and 23,000 CNY/ton, an increase of about 31% from the beginning of the year.

03 The wind power industry continues to be hot, and raw material prices are still high although they have fallen

On April 19, the National Energy Administration officially announced the "Notice on the Development and Construction of Wind Power and Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2021 (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)". According to the "Notice", in 2021, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the country will reach 11% of the total electricity consumption of the whole society, and it will increase year by year thereafter, and it will reach about 16.5% by 2025. The "Carbon Peaking Action Plan by 2030" also proposes that by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach 1.2 billion kilowatts. The introduction of a series of policies will also benefit the wind power industry.

As far as the current situation is concerned, although the raw material market has fallen broadly, overall it has risen since the beginning of the year.

Epoxy Resin: The current average price quoted in the market is RMB 32,750/ton, which is 28% higher than the beginning of the year.

Bisphenol A: After the National Day holiday, the sharp rise in crude oil drove raw materials such as pure benzene to rise sharply. On the first trading day after the holiday, the raw material phenol/acetone rose sharply. Supported by the cost side, Bisphenol A went up against the trend. 22,167 CNY/ton quickly rose to 24,200 CNY/ton. But the good times are not long and the downstream is weak to follow up. With the new equipment put into production and the East China bidding continues to fall, the market has entered an unstoppable downward trend. Up to now, the domestic bisphenol A price has been lower than 20,000/ton. Although the price fell back to fall, it still rose by about 50% from the beginning of the year.