Losing advantage conditions, DMF prices firm

China's DMF market price trend chart

As THE MARKET of DMF enters a new plateau once again, it is difficult for both sides of supply and demand to reach a conclusion at this time. The industry has always paid high attention to whether the ex-factory price of 14,800 CNY/ton in spot exchange can hold up. Although DMF factories maintain profits through operations such as negative reduction and price reduction, whether it can be smoothly transmitted is the key to success.

The DMF market trend in November is mixed with various entanglements, and the factory's premium factors are lacking, but there are also variables.

① THE maintenance plan of the main devices of the DMF factory has been completely executed, and it remains to be seen whether the maintenance of other small devices can play a role.

② THE price of DMF has been out of the control of raw material cost for a long time, but the market of methanol and synthetic ammonia has been weak and declining recently. Corresponding to the market price of DMF at this time, the industry profit gradually rises from 7,500 CNY/ton to 9,200 CNY/ton;

③ Raw material inventory of downstream industries is a limiting factor. Although the traditional off-peak season boundary is vague, according to the main slurry market consumption data, its purchasing mentality continues to be weak, the mentality of various industries is slightly different, and the sentiment of falling is strong.

DMF's profit chart is in China

Before 2018, the annual average profit of THE DMF industry was around 900-1000 CNY/ton. In 2019, the annual average profit dropped to 600 CNY/ton due to comprehensive factors such as environmental protection and epidemic disease.

In 2020, jiangshan Chemical's production capacity was withdrawn, DMF industry chain revived in the post-epidemic era, and downstream demand followed up to increase the price of DMF. The annual profit increased to more than 2000 CNY/ton;

In 2021, the DMF market is rising like opening, breaking away from the cost line control, and the price breaks through 10,000 yuan mark. The average annual profit in the first half of the year can reach 5000 CNY/ton, and the average profit from June to December of the second half of the year remains 8000-9000 CNY/ton, which is amazing, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 160% and an annual profit growth of 210%. Many operators are difficult to choose the market trend, the voice of the supplier is gradually enhanced, restricting the mentality of downstream procurement.

From mid to late November, the downstream and terminal markets of DMF enter the traditional off-season, and the follow-up of new orders is slow. Affected by industry profits, the resistance to high DMF of raw materials runs through the whole time. The short atmosphere of the secondary market is strong, and the game enters the white-hot stage.

At this time, Hualu 50000 tons of small devices announced maintenance for a month, affecting part of the bearish attitude, the market direction can change is surprising, for the factory, to keep the pace of shipment is the fundamental result, Longzhong is expected, the short-term DMF market is not easy to rise and fall, the long-term downside risk, pay attention to the factory guidance.