Global Chemical Exports Are Freezing in 2026

Although 2026 has only just passed its first third, global chemical trade has already undergone major shifts due to dense export controls. From China to the United States, from Russia to the European Union, and from Japan and South Korea to the Middle East and Southeast Asia, almost no major economy is still committed to maintaining an “open supply” approach.

China

• Suspended export approval for monoammonium phosphate (MAP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) from March 1 to August 31, 2026, while imposing strict quota management. As the world’s largest phosphate fertilizer exporter (over 10 million tons annually), this move directly pushes up global phosphate fertilizer prices.
• Introduced annual export quotas for urea, with strict restrictions during the spring planting season and a suspension of small-package exports. Total annual exports are expected to fall by about 40% year-on-year. Exports of ordinary-grade sulfuric acid are restricted starting May 1 (with only electronic-grade exempted). China accounts for about 40% of global sulfuric acid output, affecting chemical feedstock supply in Southeast Asia.
• Implemented strict export licensing for rare earths, tungsten, antimony, molybdenum, and indium starting January 1. China supplies over 80% of global rare earths, impacting the new energy and high-end manufacturing supply chains.
• Introduced quota and licensing systems for coal, crude oil, and refined petroleum products.
• Cancelled export tax rebates for methanol, ethylene glycol, and lithium hexafluorophosphate starting April 1, discouraging low-value-added exports.

United States

• Classified elemental phosphorus and glyphosate as strategic critical materials starting February 18, 2026, implementing strict export quotas and controls. Domestic demand exceeds supply, tightening global phosphorus-based raw material markets.
• Imposed secondary sanctions on Iranian crude oil, refined products, and petrochemicals starting January 23, prohibiting related transactions and maritime settlements, reshaping global energy flows.
• Congress retains the authority to temporarily ban crude oil exports (not yet implemented). As a major oil producer, any policy change would significantly affect global supply.

Russia

• Temporary export controls on helium from April 14, 2026 to the end of 2027. As the world’s third-largest helium producer (about 15% share), this exacerbates global shortages.
• Full export ban on gasoline from April 1 to July 31 (except intergovernmental agreements), with daily exports of 100,000–120,000 barrels, directly affecting supply to Central Asia and Mongolia.
• One-month suspension of ammonium nitrate exports from March 21 to April 21, pushing up global nitrogen fertilizer prices.
• Extension of export bans on diesel and marine fuel oil until February 28, affecting Europe and North Africa’s refined fuel supply.
• Year-round restrictions on sulfur exports to secure domestic fertilizer production, impacting CIS and neighboring regions.

European Union

• Gradual ban on Russian LNG imports from April 25, 2026 to the end of the year, with a plan to fully ban Russian pipeline gas by the end of September 2027. This accelerates Europe’s “de-Russification” of energy but raises energy costs.

Türkiye

• Export ban on sulfur from April 7 to September 30, 2026 (excluding goods under certain tariff arrangements). With exports of about 226,500 tons in 2025 mainly to Egypt and Greece, this creates shortages of non-fertilizer feedstock.

Iran

• Under combined U.S. sanctions and domestic restrictions, exports of crude oil, refined products, and petrochemicals are significantly constrained starting April 19, 2026. Oil exports account for over 60% of fiscal revenue; the contraction severely pressures the domestic economy.

Saudi Arabia

• Voluntary crude oil production cuts and export quotas throughout 2026 to stabilize global oil prices. As one of the world’s largest oil exporters, this directly impacts global supply and pricing.

Qatar

• Restricts spot exports of ammonia and liquefied natural gas (LNG), prioritizing long-term contracts. Tighter supply pushes up prices and affects global ammonia and LNG markets.

Japan

• From June 17, 2026, fully bans production, import, and use of 117 PFAS substances, affecting electronics and textile supply chains.
• From January 6, strengthens export controls on fluorinated chemicals, rare earths, graphite, and other dual-use goods, covering over 1,000 tariff codes, impacting semiconductors and precision manufacturing supply chains.

South Korea

• Temporary export ban on naphtha starting March 27, 2026. As a major Asian exporter, this tightens feedstock supply for ethylene and polyethylene production in Asia.

Australia

• Expands domestic gas security mechanisms from January 1, 2026 to the end of 2030, restricting some LNG exports and affecting Asian gas supply.
• From July 1, bans production, import, and export of products containing decabromodiphenyl ether (UV-328), affecting plastics and electronics industries.
• Also bans production, import, and export of mercury and its compounds (except essential uses), impacting mining and instrumentation sectors.

India

• From January 1 to the end of 2026, imposes export quotas on crude oil and refined petroleum products to stabilize domestic fuel prices, affecting global crude oil trade flows.

Brazil

• From February 1 to the end of 2026, raises export tariffs and imposes quotas on ethanol and biofuels. As the world’s largest ethanol exporter, this impacts the global biofuel market.

Thailand

• Temporarily bans oil shipments to Cambodia in 2026, creating short-term pressure on Cambodia’s energy supply.

Ukraine

• Extends import bans on Russian energy and chemical products starting January 1, 2026, fully cutting off bilateral energy and chemical trade.

Multiple economies tightening chemical exports simultaneously is primarily driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, heightened risks along the Red Sea shipping routes, and growing concerns over supply stability. In critical sectors such as fertilizers, industrial gases, and rare metals, no country wants domestic agriculture, energy, or high-tech industries to suffer from sudden supply disruptions. As a result, many governments are prioritizing domestic demand, leading to a concentrated wave of temporary and preventive export controls.

This round of export restrictions has already had tangible market impacts: global fertilizer supplies are tightening and prices are rising; industrial gases and critical materials such as helium and rare earths are facing supply constraints, putting pressure on semiconductor, medical, and new energy industries; and disruptions in basic chemicals such as sulfur and naphtha are increasing downstream production costs.

Most of these measures are temporary or product-specific, and markets are gradually absorbing and adjusting to the changes.