Demand: Global Trade Volume Growth Rate Of 6.7% In 2022 With Strong Customer Shipment Demand

On October 12, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintained its forecast for global economic growth of 4.9 percent in 2022, while stating that a multi-point outbreak of the epidemic had affected countries and regions at key points in the global supply chain, causing longer than previously expected supply chain disruptions. The IMF further forecasts that global trade volume (including goods and services) will grow at 6.7% in 2022, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in July; developed country imports will grow at 7.3%, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in July; and emerging and developing country imports will grow at 7.1%.

U.S. personal consumption of goods is still growing at a high rate, with a trend of shifting from durable to non-durable goods, and there is no sign that the consumption boom is waning. U.S. personal consumption grew 25% through September 2021, returning to pre-epidemic levels; goods consumption grew at a two-year average compound rate of more than 5% in September, while services consumption remained flat. U.S. personal consumption of goods remains at an accelerating pace, with durable goods spending growth declining after peaking in May 2021 and nondurable goods spending trending gradually upward.

This is reflected in a decline in sales of big-ticket items such as furniture, while spending on small appliances continues to increase. There is no indication that the spending boom is waning, with the exception of motor vehicle spending, which continues to grow at a high rate. According to the National Retail Federation NRF, retail seaborne imports are expected to be 20% higher in December 2021 than in the same period in 2019 prior to the outbreak.

The impact of power restrictions has gradually diminished since late October and is now essentially non-existent, with strong shipment demand likely to continue through 2022. Customers are more optimistic about the expected follow-up cargo volume, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries are gradually resuming work and production, shipments will remain high, and will remain fully loaded level. At the same time, in order to avoid the possible impact of strikes brought by unfavorable negotiations in the second quarter of next year, shippers may rush to shipments before June next year. After that, U.S. retailers will start to increase inventory purchases in the second quarter of 2022, so the consolidation market is expected to remain strong through the summer of 2022. This is followed by the traditional U.S. holiday spending season. As a result, strong demand for shipments in 2022 may continue for a full year.