Downstream Power Plant Inventory has been at a high level

On May 23, the main power coal contract ZC1909 opened at 594 CNY/ton, closing at 594 CNY/ton, a drop of 0.1%. The full-day trading range ranged from 591 CNY/ton to 596.4 CNY/ton, with a total of 136030 trades and 253258 positions. Chen Xiaohan, an analyst of Zhongyu Information Power Coal Industry, said in an interview with the Securities Daily on May 23 that the domestic power coal market had declined partially and the decline in Shaanxi had expanded. The coal mines such as Galaxy, Dabian Yao, Fangjiabian and Egret had dropped 5 CNY/ton to 20 CNY/ton. Under the downward trend, downstream customers and TRADERS'wait-and-see sentiment has increased. Bi Fangjing, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Coal Industry, told Securities Daily in an interview that the current market demand is cool and there has been no significant decline in port quotations. Only a few traders have sold off and the market has been running weakly and steadily. In the early stage, the main production area is mainly due to the supply shortage caused by insufficient coal management tickets, safety inspection and other factors. In recent years, due to the poor demand of port terminals, the delivery of goods in the production area has weakened, the coal price is at a high level, and the downward pressure is greater under the background of weak supply and demand. Daily port consumption has rebounded slightly, but inventory has been at a high level, and there is little demand for power plant replenishment.

According to the operation status of the six power plants, as of May 23, 2019, the coal stocks in the six power plants along the coast were 16.159 million tons, down by 163,000 tons compared with the same period last week; the daily consumption was 591,900 tons, down by 28,000 tons compared with the same period last week; the available days were 27.3 days, up by 1.0 days compared with the same period last week.

Bi Fangjing said that the current inventory of power plants is at a high level. As of May 23, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.159 million tons, an increase of 3.3311 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the daily consumption was 591.9 million tons, a decrease of 19.32 million tons compared with the same period last year. In addition, the overall market is depressed due to negative factors such as the reduction of railway freight and the sustained development of hydropower. It is expected that the coal market will continue to operate with small fluctuations in May, with relatively small increases and decreases.

Chen Xiaohan said that in late May, the inventory of downstream power plants has reached a high level, but the daily consumption growth rate is obviously not as expected, and the power plants are still dominated by Changxie coal under the restriction of the Changxie contract. Under the flat demand for coal in the market and weak demand in the downstream, the sales of electricity coal in the main production areas and many places are poor, and some of them have a downward trend, especially the price of some coal in the main production areas is high. Set down. While resources are still not loose, coal prices are expected to decline, but downward space is relatively limited.

Chen Xiaohan said that the current off-season impact of the power coal market is reflected. Although the national temperature will rise significantly next week, according to the data of last month, the growth rate of thermal power will decrease, the substitution of new energy such as hydro-wind power will increase, and the daily consumption will not increase too much with the increase of rainfall in the south. Short-term demand is still weak, while the high price of coal in the main producing areas is expected to decline to some extent. However, the downward space is limited under the support of tight supply side. It is expected that during the period before the peak season, the market will be weak in both supply and demand. After partial downward adjustment, the market will be weak and stable temporarily. In the future, activities such as peak season and 70th anniversary will be tightened again to push up coal prices.