How far is the coal price rebounding from seasonal bottoming?

At present, the power plant purchase demand has not improved, the port market transaction price has further reduced, and the port market remains depressed. At present, the performance of the spot market has obviously reflected the weakness of the demand side to a certain extent, and traders' pessimistic expectation for the future market has been deepened. In terms of the latest market, on the 29th, the demand for new inquiry goods at the port was relatively small, the quotation of upstream suppliers was slightly loose, some enterprises implemented large amount of preferential measures, while the purchase slowed down under the downstream "buy up don't buy down" sentiment, and the overall market transaction activity was low. On the 29th, the mainstream price of cv5500 power final coal was about 568 yuan, and the mainstream price of cv5000 power final coal was about 495 yuan. According to the trend of coal price in the later period, Mao Jun, manager of Strategy Department of Jiangsu Jinying capital management company, pointed out that at present, the coal supply is loose obviously, and the railway transportation capacity is abundant, and it is difficult to have a greater upward momentum under the impact of imported coal, weak demand operation and other factors. However, at present, the shrinking price gap between inside and outside as well as the stricter customs clearance at some ports limit the impact of imported coal on the price, and the deterioration of freight and transportation conditions in the northern part of winter will be accompanied by a certain support for coal price in the warm winter season.

The coal price shows obvious signs of reaching the bottom seasonally, and the upward rebound needs the guidance of certain scale purchase action of the power plant. On October 29, the price of CCI power coal in the latest phase of China coal resources network showed that the price of cci5500 power coal was 568 CNY/ton, 1 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous phase, and 12 consecutive periods of continuous callback, 19 CNY/ton or 3.2% lower than the price in the same period last month; the price of cci5000 power coal was 496 CNY/ton, 2 CNY/ton lower than the price in the previous phase, 22 CNY/ton or 4.2% lower than the price in the same period last month. From the perspective of the downstream, the daily average coal consumption of six coastal power plants has been stable at 600000 tons in the near future. Under a certain replenishment, the coal storage capacity has exceeded 16 million tons, and the available days have increased to over 28 days. Due to the abundant terminal stock and the moderate transportation strategy for winter storage, long-term cooperative coal is the main procurement strategy, and the market coal procurement intention is low. As of October 30, the inventory of six coastal power plants was 16.549 million tons, with an increase of 491000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 428000 tons; the daily coal consumption was 579000 tons, with a decrease of 28000 tons in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year increase of 9.1 tons; the available days were 28.6 days, with an increase of 2.2 days in the weekly to environmental ratio, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 days.

In terms of imported coal, recently, the market heard that Fuzhou port and Guangzhou port restricted the import of coal. It was learned from the market that since the declaration volume of coal by Fuzhou Customs has exceeded the level of 2018, the declaration of imported coal will be suspended from the 25th; Guangzhou Customs will not allow customs declaration in other places. According to some importers, Fuzhou Customs has suspended declaration due to excessive coal import. However, Fuzhou port can also declare in other places, and port operation is normal; Guangzhou port still has a quota, which has limited impact on the market temporarily. Through a domestic trader, China coal resources network has learned that in the near future, the price of imported coal has little advantage, and the domestic delivery is weak. It has been heard that some ports are limited, but the impact is expected to be limited, or the market sentiment will be boosted for the time being. A domestic trader said that at present, domestic prices are falling continuously, which also affects the weakening of coal prices in Australia.

For the domestic market in the fourth quarter, it is not very optimistic. In the winter peak season, the price is stable at most and rebounds slightly, and there will be no big market. For the imported coal, it will also change with the domestic price trend. In the short term, it may also be stable and weak. In terms of producing areas, the sales of coal mines in the main producing areas have not improved, and coal prices continue to be explored. It is understood that due to the impact of environmental protection inspection in Shenmu area, Shaanxi Province, the transportation of some coal plants is limited. In addition, the overall downstream market demand is weak, the coal mine delivery is weak, and the coal price is difficult to maintain stability, so the price will drop 5-30 CNY/ton again. At present, the production area in Ordos area, Inner Mongolia is greatly affected by the poor procurement of the port and surrounding areas. The coal mine inventory continues to run at a high and medium level, and the sales are under pressure. Some of the coal mines are again slightly reduced by 10 CNY/ton. After a small decline in some mines in northern Shanxi Province, the sales did not improve, so we kept a wait-and-see attitude for the time being.