Coal price fluctuates W-shaped during the maintenance period of Daqin Line

April is the traditional off-season of coal use, just in the Daqin line maintenance season, the upstream supply decreases; while the downstream, affected by the power plant unit maintenance, demand remains depressed, the coastal coal market will show a weak trend of both supply and demand. Coal trading prices in the port market fell first, then rose, and then fell. At the end of April, they stabilized and stopped falling and rose slightly. At the beginning of January and January, port coal prices rose.

From April 7 to April 30 this year, the Daqin Railway Line began centralized maintenance in spring. It was thought that the coastal power plants, which had just undergone phased rush transportation, were not in a hurry to pull coal to make up the depot after the Daqin Line maintenance began, and the market maintained a flat trend. In addition, "Mengji Line - Caofeidian Port" and "Shuohuang Line - Huanghua Port" coal transport channels are unblocked, downstream power plants replenish timely, coal shortage will not occur, and coal trading prices at ports remain stable. However, the actual situation is not the same. After the start of the overhaul, the coal market remains active, high-quality coal around the Bohai Sea port is in short demand, and coal prices in the port market rise in the first week after the start of the overhaul. In April, in the traditional off-season of coal use, power plant unit maintenance, civil power consumption is weakened, according to the theory, demand should be weakened. However, industrial electricity consumption has been boosted, and the daily consumption of power plants has remained at the mid-high level, which is quite unexpected. In April, the average daily coal consumption of the six coastal power plants remained around 680,000 tons in the first ten days, and the coal storage of the power plants declined, and some users actively pulled coal to replenish the depot, showing the strong demand downstream. After overhaul began, the situation of coastal coal market suddenly looked good. Industrial enterprises in coastal areas started full production, some industries with staggered peak production increased production and sales, and the demand for coal in cement plants and chemical industries rebounded, which promoted the increase of coal trading volume in the port market around Bohai Sea and the increase of inquiry and inquiry customers. Especially for low-sulfur and low-water coal, the number of purchases increased. On the third day of maintenance of Daqin Line, power supply failure occurred in Zhangjiakou, railway transportation was aggravated, train arrival of Daqin Line declined sharply, and some high-quality resources of ports were in short supply. At this time, due to the strict upstream safety inspection, coal price inversion and inactive transportation of traders and other factors, the volume of Shuohuang Line and Mengji Line is limited, the import of high-quality coal is insufficient, low-sulfur and low-water coal is in short demand, and port coal prices are rising rapidly.

The power supply failure of Daqin Line has little influence on the coal market. On the third day of maintenance of Daqin Line, power supply failure occurred in Zhangjiakou. Ten days of planned maintenance, railway transportation was "worsened by the snow". On the basis of 1.1 million tons per day, the number of vehicles entering Daqin Line would be reduced by 200,000 to 300,000 tons. In fact, the power supply failure and centralized repair of Daqin Line have little impact on the coal market, but it has a certain role in promoting the rise of coal prices at ports. The power supply failure of Daqin Line has been repaired for three days, and it will be over. Therefore, it has little impact on the supply of coastal coal market. During the period of power supply failure, the daily transportation volume of Daqin Line dropped to 800-900,000 tons, and the entry volume dropped 32% compared with the normal level. But at this time, the northern heating stopped and coal consumption decreased; in order to ensure the port demand around the Bohai Sea, Taiyuan Road Bureau deliberately reduced the coal truck intake of power plants in Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan areas, and supplied the main resources to Qinhuangdao and other ports. Qingang's inventory remains high enough to meet downstream coal demand. During the period of power supply failure, the storage of coal in Qinhuangdao Port was stable, which had little change compared with the beginning of the month. The total storage of coal in the three ports of Beijing-Tang (Lao Jingtang, 36-40 berths, Guotou Jingtang Port) had little change, and all the supporting ports of Da-Qin Line were in the middle to high level. During the spring maintenance period of Daqin Line, the daily delivery volume was about 1.1 million tons.

On April 9, the foundation of the local power supply tower of Wangjiawan Substation on Daqin Line sank. It is planned to be maintained for 10 days, affecting more than 90 kilometers. On the first day after the failure, the daily traffic volume dropped to 807,000 tons, down by 200,000 to 300,000 tons; on the second and third days, the daily traffic volume was 89.7 and 960,300 tons, respectively. With the active rush repair of the railway sector, the impact on the market and transport in the later period is gradually weakened. During the period of maintenance, the inventory of downstream power plants is saturated, and rigid purchasing is still the main method. The total coal storage capacity of the six power plants along the coast is about 15 million tons, with 22 days available for coal storage. In addition to power supply and Datang Coastal Power Plant coal storage available days are 15 days, the remaining power plants coal storage available days are as high as 17 days, not eager to pull a large number of coal storage, only to maintain rigid purchasing of coal storage around the Bohai Sea port. The state controls Australian coal entering the domestic market in large quantities, but Indonesia, Russia and other countries import coal into the domestic market, the southern coal is not tense. In addition, during the overhaul phase of Daqin Line, the coal transportation corridors of Shuohuang-Huanghua Port and Mengji-Caofeidian Port have increased their capacity, and the coal turnover of Huanghua Port and Caofeidian Port has accelerated, while the anchorage ships have decreased. At the end of March and March, port coal prices rose. The overhaul of Daqin Line and the overlapping power supply failure of Zhangjiakou have little influence on the coal market and will not cause the coal shortage in coastal areas. However, due to the intensification of coal tension, the rising sentiment of traders, and the tension of some types of coal around the Bohai Sea port, the port coal price continued to rise at the end of the month. From April 7 to 20, just before the maintenance of Daqin Line, the actual trading price of coal at the port showed a trend of continuous slight increase, then decline; the price of coal rose from 622 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 634 CNY/ton, and then fell to 620 CNY/ton. Despite the off-season coal use, coastal power plants began to repair their units, but downstream demand is still good.