Coke market three rounds of rising and falling

Under the expectation of Shanxi coking industry's vigorous integration and reduction of production capacity, domestic coking coal and coke prices have risen strongly in recent years, and double-coke futures have reached a new high in the year. Journalists from Securities Times E learned that the third round of coke market rise has successfully landed in recent days, and the downstream iron and steel enterprises are well accepted. Against the background of the sharp rise in double coke and iron ore prices, the profit margin of iron and steel enterprises has continued to decline, and some products have been in loss. Coke futures set a new high in the year. On May 23, the main contract prices of coke coal and coke in the domestic futures market fell slightly. By the end of the afternoon, coke coal 1909 was down 1.65% and coke 1909 was down 0.89%.

Prior to that, the bifocal futures have successively renewed their new highs since 2019. On May 22, the main coke contract was reported as high as 2338 CNY/ton, up 12.4% from the lowest 2080 CNY/ton on May 15, while the price of 1767 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year had increased by more than 32%.

On 22, the main coking coal contracts were reported at 1433 CNY/ton, up 7.3% from the lowest of 1335 CNY/ton on May 15, and the price of 1249 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year has also increased by more than 14.7%.

Except for bifocal, the black commodity with the strongest trend this year is iron ore. By the afternoon of May 23, the main share of iron ore was about 1909 to 728.5 CNY/ton, with the highest offset of 734 CNY/ton, up 14.5% from the lowest of 641 CNY/ton on May 15, and up nearly 58% from the lowest of 465 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year.

"Recently, the price of double-focus futures has been rising rapidly, which is mainly affected by the strong integration of Shanxi coking industry and the anticipated reduction of production capacity." Zhu Jinzhi, an analyst at Zhuochuang, told reporters.

On May 6, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a paper entitled "Looking Back" and Special Supervision Situation Feedback from the Second Central Eco-environmental Protection Supervision Group to Shanxi Province. The supervisory group directly pointed out that Shanxi coking capacity expansion impulse is still strong, the coking capacity "more adjustments more", at the same time, Shanxi optimization of industrial layout requirements are all in vain, industrial adjustment is obviously inadequate, in addition, the pollution emission problem is very prominent, pollution control refuge is easy.

In this regard, the Shanxi Development and Reform Commission, the Provincial Office of Industry and Information Technology, the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment, Taiyuan City, Changzhi City and Jinzhong City held meetings and wrote that they would make every effort to promote the rectification and accelerate the formulation of specific rectification plans. According to the analysis of

Xingye Futures Research and Report, Shanxi coking industry is expected to usher in a new round of reform with the help of this environmental protection supervision. The strength and influence of this inspection increased significantly the previous time, especially for the coking industry, the inspection team directly named its capacity expansion and pollution exceeding the standard. The analysis indicates that the main contradiction between supply and demand of coke has been the long-term easing situation at the supply side since this year. Based on the above analysis, whether from the industry itself or from the level of Shanxi government, the effect of this environmental supervision and rectification will probably be stronger than before, and this year coincides with the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, and environmental issues have been hotly discussed during the two sessions. The plan of this round of supervision and rectification will be announced at the end of this month or the middle of next month, when the coke supply will be suppressed or the inflection point of supply will appear. On the demand side, Tangshan's output limit in the second and third quarters is less than the document expected, and many capacity replacement steel plants in the north have been put into operation gradually in the near future. In the short term, coke demand may fluctuate, but the overall trend will be stable. On the basis of the implementation of rectification measures in Shanxi coking industry, the price center of medium and long-term coke may move up.

Coke market three rounds of rising and falling and futures market double-coke price rise echoes the recent spot coke market has been three consecutive rounds of price increases.

Zhu Jinzhi told reporters that after the second round of coke spot rose completely last week, the trading atmosphere in the market remained active, the demand of downstream steel mills was good, and the environmental protection situation in Shanxi Province was expected to become more stringent, with optimistic anxieties, and the mood continued to rise.

This week, leading coke enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei raised 100 CNY/ton in the third round. Shandong Coke Association also voiced that purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel mills did not decrease, and a few steel mills with lower inventory took the lead in accepting price increases. Other mainstream steel mills followed up one after another. Up to 22 days, Hegang raised purchasing price, coke rose and fell in the third round. Taking Shandong market as an example, secondary coke factory accepted 2090-2140 yuan. / Tons, up 4.96% from last week.

Taiyuan Coal Center News also shows that from May 21, Linfen Anze area low-sulfur coke increased by 20 CNY/ton again, from the end of April to the present cumulative increase of 60 CNY/ton, after the rise of low-sulfur main coke coal mining tax 1640 CNY/ton. In recent years, the frequency of environmental protection inspection in Linfen area has increased, and the productivity limit in Xiangfen and Hongdong areas is basically the same as that in the earlier period, with the production limit range of 30-50%, and that in Guxian area is about 20-30%. Some coke enterprises have temporary production restrictions, the overall impact is limited. The third round of coke increase has all landed, and coke enterprises have better shipments.

Analysis shows that the recent start-up of coal washery in Linfen area of Shanxi has slightly declined, and the sales of clean coal in mainstream areas are good. The production of clean coal in independent coal washery has been stopped due to the shortage of raw coal, and the output of clean coal has decreased. In addition, the production of individual high sulfur main coke mines in Luliang area of Shanxi Province was suspended due to the relocation of working face, and the supply of main coke coal varieties continued to decrease.

With the continuous expansion of the voice range of coke raising, the purchase price of coke in Hegang Group increased by 100 CNY/ton, the first grade coke (A < 12.5, S < 0.65, CSR < 65, MT < 7) increased by 2 350 CNY/ton, and the medium sulfur coke (A < 13, S < 1, CSR < 60, MT < 7) increased by 2 150 CNY/ton. At present, the mainstream steel enterprises in Shandong and Hebei have basically implemented the third round of coke price increase. The overall inventory of coke enterprises is at a low level, and the shipment is in good condition.