8.2% reduction in raw coal production and 17.4% reduction in automobile

In the first half of the year, the economic data of all provinces have been published one after another. Among them, the economic growth rate of Shaanxi Province is 5.4%, which is 8.6% lower than that of the first half of 2018 by 3.2 percentage points. This makes Shaanxi anxious.

Recently, Liu Guozhong, governor of Shaanxi Province, chaired a standing meeting of the provincial government. The meeting pointed out that since this year, in the face of sustained downward pressure, indicators such as industrial added value and growth rate of non-energy industries have improved month by month, but economic growth is still at a low level. The meeting stressed that we should do a good job of steady growth in the second half of the year and make every effort to achieve steady growth. At the following fifteenth plenary session of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee of the CPC, Hu Ping, Secretary of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee, stressed that steady growth should be the primary task of economic work in the second half of the year, and that efforts should be made to stabilize industrial growth, expand effective investment, propel projects and expand consumer demand so as to keep the economy running reasonably. Section. The economic data of Shaanxi in the first half of the year are still at a low level due to the influence of industrial structure, but the pace of structural adjustment is accelerating and has shown positive signals.

In this year's Shaanxi Provincial Government Work Report, the expected growth target of GDP is 7.5%~8%. However, according to preliminary accounting, in the first half of the year, Shaanxi Province achieved a GDP of 116.2557 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year.

as the driving force of economic growth (4.710, 0.01, 0.21%), Shaanxi's industrial performance is weak. Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the added value of Shanxi's energy industry increased by only 1.2% compared with the same period last year, while that of non-energy industry increased by 5.3% compared with the same period last year, falling by 1.7 percentage points. Energy industry is the pillar of Shaanxi's economy. Shaanxi is rich in energy resources, and the proven energy reserves are in the forefront of the country. Statistics from Shaanxi Statistical Bureau show that in 2017, Shaanxi's raw coal production ranked third in the country, crude oil production ranked first in the country, and natural gas production ranked first in the country.

But this year, the coal industry in Shaanxi has been in a dilemma. In the first half of the year, the country's raw coal production accelerated, with the output increasing by 2.6% year on year, and the growth rate accelerating by 2.2 percentage points compared with the first quarter. However, the output of raw coal in Shaanxi decreased by 8.2%.

According to a circular issued by the Office of the Security Committee of the State Council, on January 12 this year, a coal dust explosion occurred in Lijiagou Coal Mine of Baiji Mining Company, Shenmu City, Yulin City, Shaanxi Province, resulting in 21 deaths.

In the first quarter of this year, the added value of energy industry in Shaanxi Province fell by 1.4% year on year, down by 10.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. At a press conference on the operation of Shaanxi's national economy in the first quarter held in April, Zhang Ye, spokesman of the Shaanxi Statistical Bureau and president's accountant, also indicated that, affected by the above-mentioned accidents, the output of raw coal in the first quarter of Shaanxi Province decreased by nearly 20 million tons compared with the same period of last year, and the added value of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 10.6%, which was back from the same period of last year. A drop of 30.2 percentage points has a greater impact on industrial growth. In addition to the energy industry, the above-mentioned data also show that the non-energy industry that Shaanxi has been striving to develop in recent years is unsatisfactory. Among them, the automobile industry is the new pillar industry in Shaanxi Province, but in the first half of this year, the added value of the automobile manufacturing industry increased by only 4.3%, while the output decreased by 17.4%. Under the influence of the decline of major industries, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) in Shaanxi increased by 2.5% in the first half of the year, and fell by 6.7 percentage points compared with the first quarter. Zhao Rui, president of Shaanxi Macroeconomic Society, told First Financial and Economic Journalist that Shaanxi has long been an investment-driven economy, and the decline in investment growth in the first half of this year was unprecedented for many years. In the first half of the year, Xi'an GDP, which accounts for about 30% of Shaanxi's total economy, grew by 7%. In 2018, Xi'an ranked first among the 15 sub-provincial cities in China with an economic growth rate of 8.2%. In addition, in the first half of the year, the investment in real estate development in Xi'an dropped by 1.1%, 15.1 percentage points from January to May, and 6.8 percentage points from the same period last year. 

Zhao Rui said that in the first half of the year, the proportion of real estate development investment in GDP in Shaanxi was 14.5%, and the dependence was not large. This data in Xi'an has not been released specifically. According to the basic data in 2017, the proportion in that year was 38%.

But he said that real estate could not be blamed for the decline in investment growth and the slowdown in GDP growth. The dependence of economic development on real estate in a city or region should be rigorously analyzed from the proportion of real estate development investment in GDP and total investment. Generally, more than 30% of the dependence is greater. In addition, we should differentiate and judge according to city function, industrial characteristics and population inflow.

But by comparing the data in the first half of the year and the first half of the year, we can see some correlation between real estate and economic growth in Xi'an.

In the first quarter, Xi'an's GDP grew by 8.6% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year, a new high since the first quarter of 2015. But why did the growth rate fall in the second quarter so that it dropped to 7% in the first half of the year? Since 2017, Xi'an has upgraded and adjusted its household registration policy seven times, and introduced a new policy of "the most relaxed household registration access in history". As of April 30, 2019, a total of 1151,000 people had settled in Xi'an, and a large number of talents had become an important factor in promoting the real estate boom in Xi'an.

Data from the National Statistical Bureau show that as of June 2019, the price of newly built commercial housing in Xi'an has risen for 40 consecutive months, while it has risen for 42 consecutive months. In June this year, the sale price of new houses in Xi'an rose 25.2% year-on-year, ranking first in 70 cities for seven consecutive months.

Under the background of "no speculation in housing", on May 27, the Xi'an Municipal Government held a symposium on housing price regulation and control.