Promoting Consumption Policy to Land as soon as possible

On July 10, the China Automobile Industry Association released data on automobile production and sales in June 2019. The data show  that in January-June, the automobile production and sales completed 12.132 million vehicles and 12.323 million vehicles respectively. The production and sales volume decreased by 13.7% and 12.4% respectively compared with the same period of last year. The decline rate of output increased by 0.7 percentage points compared with January-May, and the decline rate of sales decreased by 0.6 percentage points. China Automobile Industry Association pointed out that the completion of the first half of the year was lower than expected. It is expected that the whole year will show negative growth. We call on the government to promote consumption policies to land as soon as possible.

According to the data of June and January, the decline of automobile production and sales was narrower than that of the previous month. The output and sales of automobiles were 1895,000 and 2056,000 respectively, which increased by 2.5% and 7.5% respectively, and decreased by 17.3% and 9.6% respectively, compared with the same period of last year. The decrease of automobile production and sales was 3.9% and 6.8% respectively. The Policy Research Office of China Automobile Industry Association also released the data of China Auto Climate Index (ACI) in the second quarter of 2019. According to the evaluation index system of the automobile industry prosperity, the results show that in the second quarter of 2019, the ACI of the automobile industry prosperity index is 12, which is still in the "supercooling" zone of the blue light district. The unanimous composite index of the automobile industry was 0.53 points lower than that of the previous quarter, and the leading composite index was 0.73 points lower than that of the previous quarter.

China Automobile Industry Association Policy Research Office believes that the above two points indicate that the current automobile industry is weak, and there is still some downward pressure in the future.

According to the statistical analysis of China Automobile Industry Association, from the completion of production and marketing data in June 2019, although the overall decline of the industry has narrowed, the overall decline of production and marketing in the industry is still facing considerable pressure, which has been declining year-on-year for 12 consecutive months. Due to the change of the Sixth National Standard on July 1 in some areas and the end of the transition period of subsidies for new energy vehicles on June 25, the market demand for passenger cars has rebounded compared with last month, with a production and sales rate of 108.5% this month, promoted by the promotion policies of manufacturers and distributors. Enterprises'de-inventory efforts have increased, and the end-of-enterprise inventory has dropped to the lowest level since July 2014. Due to the intensification of the "large tonnage and small standard" of state governance, the production-marketing ring ratio and the comparative ratio of light trucks have decreased by more than 10%, thus affecting the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales. The China Automobile Industry Association believes that the automobile production and sales in the first half of the year are running at a low level, which is lower than the expectation at the beginning of the year. Market consumption momentum has not been affected by "price promotion" and other factors, consumer wait-and-see mood has not improved. With the formal implementation of the new national purchase tax policy on July 1 and the formal switching of the six national standards in some regions, consumption momentum may be improved, which will be a positive factor for the improvement of market demand in the second half of the year. At the same time, listed automobile companies have issued production and marketing reports in the first half of this year. Reporters from the Peng Mei News (www.thepaper.cn) made statistics on the production and sales of major listed automobile companies in the first half of the year, with a significant decline in production and sales. Among the 17 Listed automobile companies, 10 have seen year-on-year sales decline in the first half of this year. Among them, * ST hippocampus sales fell by 65.16%, Dawning shares sales decreased by 57.77%, and Chang'an automobile sales fell by 31.65% compared with the same period last year. Although sales of seven listed automobile companies increased in the first half of the year, the overall growth rate did not decline significantly. Yaxing Bus, Zhongtong Bus and Dongfeng Bus were in the front rank. Sales increased by 20%, 15.24% and 14.64% respectively in the first half of the year. The products of these three companies are mainly commercial vehicles and pickup trucks.

Peng Mei also noted that although the overall production and sales declined significantly, the new energy automobile production and sales in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, which was significantly better than the same period last year. According to the data, in the first half of the year, the sales of new energy vehicles of Geely Automobile increased 301.06%, Fukuda Automobile increased 140.79%, Jianghuai Automobile increased more than 95%, and BYD increased 94.5%. Fukuda Motor's sales of new energy vehicles rose by 906.67% in June, and Jianghuai Motor's sales of new energy vehicles increased by more than 429% in June. The analysis shows that with the implementation of the Sixth National Policy (the Sixth National Motor Vehicle Emission Standard), the substitution effect of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles has begun to appear.

From the overall national data, the growth of new energy vehicles is still very obvious. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year reached 614,000 and 617,000 respectively, an increase of 48.5% and 49.6% over the same period last year. Among them, 493,000 pure electric vehicles and 490,000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, up 57.3% and 56.6% respectively from the same period last year; 119,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 126,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were produced and sold, up 19.7% and 26.4% respectively from the same period last year; 1170 fuel cell vehicles and 1102 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold respectively, up from the same period last year, respectively. The increase was 7.2 times and 7.8 times.

Among them, in June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 134,000 and 152,000, respectively, an increase of 56.3% and 80.0% over the same period of last year. Among them, 113,000 and 129,000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, respectively, up 78.0% and 106.7% over the same period last year; 20,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were produced, down 8.9% and 22,000 vehicles were sold, up 2.2% over the same period last year; 508 and 484 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold, respectively, up from the same period last year. In the same period of the year, the growth rate was 9.8 times and 14.6 times, respectively.