Two major constraints may result in a year-on-year decline in export growth

Since this year, China's foreign trade imports and exports have been generally stable, and the high-quality development of foreign trade has been promoted in an orderly manner. Regarding China's foreign trade situation in July, Li Chao, chief macro-researcher of Huatai Securities, told Securities Daily that export growth in July is expected to be 0.5% year-on-year in RMB and -5.9% in US dollar terms. Analyzing the reasons, Li Chao believes that the downturn of the global economy and the instability of international relations will be the two major constraints leading to the downturn of China's exports. And after July, the impact is likely to be even more pronounced. Logical reversal also requires the confirmation of the inflection point of global monetary policy easing and the substantial mitigation of international relations. At the same time, there will be some lagging effect in data representation. From the data of demand side, the PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area was 46.4 in July, and that of Japan was 49.6, which were below the boom and bust line. The PMI of manufacturing industry in the euro area continued to decline. Therefore, the reason why the growth rate of RMB valuation keeps positive is that since the end of May, the RMB has depreciated considerably and formed a strong valuation effect. Li Chao said. Xiao Yaxuan, macro-analyst of China Merchants Securities, told Securities Daily that looking forward to July, the economic data of major developed countries such as PMI show that the prosperity is stable, moderate and weak. Previously, the effect of export rush faded, coupled with a certain impact on the increase of US export tariffs in May, while the overall external demand slowed down in the second quarter, and export growth is expected to decline year-on-year. In terms of imports, Xie Yaxuan said that the base rose significantly in the same period last year, but domestic demand tended to be stable. Therefore, import growth is expected to decline slightly. Exports and imports are expected to grow by - 2.5% and - 8.5% year on year in July, respectively, with a trade surplus of $38 billion. Import and export growth is expected to rebound slightly in August, and the trade surplus is expected to expand slightly from July. Li Chao predicted that the growth rate of imports in July would increase by 0.7% in RMB and - 5.3% in US dollar terms, and that the trade surplus in July would be 24.9 billion US dollars.