Differentiation and adjustment of coal blending and market price trend

1. In terms of coal market operation

Power coal, the domestic power coal market continues to adjust its operation. The latest price index of power coal around Bohai Sea was reported at 576 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton. First, the temperature is cool and the power plant market is not enough to purchase. Affected by typhoon weather, most of the rainy weather in East and South China, cool temperature, weak growth of civil power consumption, power plant daily consumption oscillation fell back to about 700,000 tons, while inventory is still at a high level, Changxie coal cashing is enough to make up for inventory consumption, low activity of spot market delivery, strong willingness to purchase price. Secondly, the port stock keeps rising and the coal supply is sufficient. As of August 7, the coal stocks in the northern ports (Qintangcang) were close to 24.4 million tons, and the daily shipment volume dropped to about 1.4 million tons. The coal stocks in the loading and unloading ports were all at a high level, and the reserve supply for downstream haul was sufficient. Third, the forward price discount, the market bearish mood increased. In recent months, contract discount has aggravated short expectations in the spot market, and forward contracts for power coal have tumbled down. As of August 7, the contract for power coal 09 has approached 575 CNY/ton. In the case of low demand in the spot market, market bearish sentiment continues to aggravate. As of August 7, Qinhuangdao Port had 6.18 million tons of coal, an increase of 175,000 tons over the same period last week. Internationally, due to insufficient terminal demand and declining procurement enthusiasm, the price of Australia's 5500 kcal power coal, which is mainly exported to China, has fallen by $51.6 per ton, down by $0.5 per ton over the same period last week. In the aspect of coking coal, the domestic coking coal market is mainly stable, and the trend of coal blending and market in some areas is differentiated. In this period, the domestic coking coal market is in a stable state of differentiation and adjustment. First, the price of some low-sulfur coking coal in Linfen and other places in Shanxi has risen by 30-50 CNY/ton; second, the prices of lean coal, lean coal and Shandong gas concentrate in Changzhi and other places have been explored to varying degrees. The main reasons are as follows: on the one hand, the coke market is steadily rising; on the other hand, the demand for coke blending in regional market is insufficient due to environmental protection and production restriction, and the sales pressure of enterprises is increasing. On the import of coal, due to the long customs clearance time and restrictions on customs declaration in many ports, resulting in a recent slump in business transactions and a sharp drop in prices. At present, the domestic CIF price of Australian second-tier coking coal is $164 per ton, down by $10.5 per ton compared with the same period in the previous period.

2. Operation of downstream and related markets

Steel market: weak operation of domestic steel market. Influenced by the continuing decline of the futures market, the domestic steel market is in a weak position. From the average spot prices of the ten cities tracked, the prices of other products are 30-100 CNY/ton lower than those of the same period last week, except for the cold rolling price, which is 23 CNY/ton higher than that of the same period last week. Meanwhile, the price of Tangshan billet is 3560 CNY/ton, which is 70 CNY/ton lower than the same period last week. In terms of production, the comprehensive utilization rate of blast furnace capacity of 163 steel plants in China in this period is 75.90%, which is 0.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last week. Affected by "Stricter Control Measures for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in the City in Late July", the comprehensive utilization rate of blast furnace capacity is 58.49%, which is 7.61% lower than that of the same period last week. Point.

Coke market: domestic coke market is steadily rising. In this period, the domestic coke market remained stable as a whole, but some coke enterprises in North China and East China had strong willingness to increase. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, affected by the environmental protection and capacity removal policies, the overall start-up rate of coke enterprises has slightly declined, and the willingness to call for a boom has been enhanced due to the continuous decline of coke stocks in the coke plants; secondly, the start-up rate of steel plants in some areas is still high, coupled with the sharp drop in ore prices, which has weakened the depression mood of the coke market. From the perspective of Tangshan area, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction is still ongoing. At present, coking time of coke ovens in most enterprises is still maintained at 36 hours, and the coke stock in the plant is generally low. As of August 5, the average transaction price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan area is 1940 CNY/ton, which remains unchanged compared with the same period last week.

Shipping Market: Coastal Coal Transport Market from strong to weak. The inadequate domestic coal market demand has led to a slump in the coastal shipping market, with freight prices falling continuously. As of August 7, the Coastal Coal Freight Index closed at 646.19 points, down 80.77 points, or 12.5%, compared with the same period last week. Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou (50-60,000 tons) and Tianjin-Shanghai (20-30,000 tons) are 34.1 CNY/ton and 30.9 CNY/ton respectively, which are 3.2 CNY/ton and 4.7 CNY/ton lower than the same period last week. Internationally, the first is the weakening of South America's grain transport market and the weak demand for coal market; the second is the decline in demand for long-distance mining routes, which has led to the continued weakening of the international dry bulk index. As of August 6, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) closed at 1734 points, down 134 points, or 7.73%, compared with the same period last week.