CPI has been in the second period for five consecutive months

In July, CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points more than last month, and it has been in the "two times" for five consecutive months. Faced with the pressure of rising prices, the relevant head of the National Development and Reform Commission said in an interview with CCTV Finance and Economics that with the fall of fruit and vegetable prices in the later period, China's overall price level is expected to remain basically stable.

Data from the Development and Reform Commission show that in July, due to the large number of seasonal fruits on the market and sufficient market supply, fruit prices overall fell, and the decline is still relatively large. The average retail price of apple, orange, pear, watermelon and banana in early August was 6.0 yuan per kilogram, which was 6.7% lower than that in early July. Among them, the price of Apple began to fall, while the price of watermelon and pear dropped by 19.3% and 20.3% respectively. Yue Xiuhu, Director-General of Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that with seasonal fruit coming on the market, especially in the main apple and pear producing areas, the overall production situation is very good, and the harvest is expected, and the price of fruits in the later period is expected to fall further. The specific data shows that the price of vegetables has fallen significantly with the large number of vegetables on the market. Monitoring data from 36 large and medium-sized cities showed that the average retail price of 15 vegetables fell back to 3.02 yuan per kilogram in early August, 28.6% lower than the high point in mid-February. Among them, the prices of cucumber, cabbage and tomato dropped by 12%, 9.2% and 8.4% respectively. Later prices are expected to continue to fall and remain seasonally volatile.

Yue Xiuhu said that the main structural factors affecting the overall price level are the fall in the price of fruits and vegetables, followed by a bumper summer grain harvest, stable production of agricultural products, adequate supply of industrial products, and the overall price level in China is expected to continue to maintain a basically stable operation. Li Chao, chief macro-analyst of Huatai Securities Research Institute, told Securities Daily that the insufficient production of stored fruits (such as apples and pears) in northern China last year affected this year's stock. In the spring of this year, heavy rainfall in the southern region may affect the picking and transportation of seasonal fruit such as pineapple. Abnormal weather factors combined with low inventory are the main reasons for the increase of fruit CPI in the second quarter of this year. With the summer season fruit watermelon, grapes, autumn apples, pears and other gradual listing, fruit price pressure is gradually eased. In the medium and long term, the adjustment speed of fruit supply side is faster, and fruit price will not be the risk factor of sustained upward inflation.

Pork prices have risen to some extent in recent years, mainly due to the occurrence of African swine plague since August last year, resulting in a great impact on pig production and supply in China. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that governments at all levels will focus on supporting pig farms and large-scale farms to restore and expand production capacity, and timely start the linkage mechanism of price subsidies.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said that a number of supporting policies, including fiscal, financial and land policies, have been introduced, with emphasis on supporting the restoration and expansion of production capacity of pig farms and large-scale farms. At the same time, we should actively guide broiler and other aquaculture industries to expand production and increase the supply of alternatives. According to the fixed-point monitoring by the relevant departments, the number of broilers in the first half of this year increased substantially, an increase of 15.8% over the same period last year. At the same time, beef cattle and mutton sheep also increased significantly, and the whole meat protein supply was stable.

Yue Xiuhu said that the stocks of sows could be doubled in scale farms which were not affected by the epidemic. Some scale farms (live pigs) increased by 20% to 30%, and some even increased by more than 60%. At the same time, in order to cope with the sharp fluctuation of pork prices, since April this year, 29 provinces in China have launched a price-subsidy linkage mechanism, which totals more than 2 billion yuan in temporary price subsidies and more than 80 million people in difficulty. According to the calculation of 2 or 2 meat per person per day, the price of lean meat has risen by 10%. Per person, the monthly expenditure may increase by about 10 yuan. Subsidies issued under the price-compensated linkage mechanism can ensure that the basic life of the poor people is not greatly affected. If price increases continue to expand in the future, the subsidy standard will be raised accordingly.

Yue Xiuhu said that the establishment of a certain scale of pork reserve can be conditional and able to guarantee the residents'pork consumption during important holidays and consumption peak period. On the other hand, special arrangements will be made to strengthen market supervision and crack down on illegal practices such as hoarding, collusion and price rises. At the same time, we should strengthen the prevention and control of African swine plague, and restore pig production capacity as soon as possible.