Institutions forecast an average CPI growth of 2.8% in September

In mid-October, the Statistical Bureau will release a number of heavy economic data in September, among which many experts have carried out a forward-looking study on the data of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) in September. Up to now, 10 institutions such as China Merchants Securities, Southwest Securities and Minsheng Securities have predicted the data.

According to the statistics of the Journal of Securities Daily, the Agency predicted that the minimum growth rate of CPI in September was 1.57%, the maximum value was 3.0%, and the average growth rate was 2.8%, while the minimum growth rate of PPI was -1.6%, the maximum value was -0.49%, and the average growth rate was -1.24%. Huachang, global chief economist at Guotai Jun'an Securities Research Institute, said that in September, although pork prices rose, growth in other food sectors slowed down year-on-year. In terms of classification, pork prices have accelerated year-on-year growth, beef, mutton and eggs have also increased slightly year-on-year, but vegetable prices have declined year-on-year, from positive to negative to -9.3%, fruit prices have declined year-on-year, and the growth rate has also slowed by 17 points to 11.1% year-on-year. On the non-food side, although the price of crude oil rose for a time, the year-on-year growth rate was basically stable due to the high base. Overall, CPI growth in September is expected to remain unchanged with that in August, at around 2.8%. Wang Qing, chief macro-analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told Securities Daily in an interview that pork prices maintained a relatively rapid upward momentum in September. However, the decline in food prices in September increased year-on-year, and the increase in fruit prices, which had aroused widespread concern, was also rapidly narrowing, which would offset the effect of pork prices on food CPI to a certain extent. In addition, the decline of PPI in September is expected to expand year-on-year, and the increase of non-food prices in CPI is expected to continue to narrow compared with August. In September, CPI expanded to about 2.9% year-on-year or slightly. The short-term end of supply in the current price rise is obvious, lacking sustainability, and there is little possibility of a substantial breakthrough of 3.0% in the future.

In terms of PPI, Huachang said that since September, the price of industrial products has improved slightly compared with August, but for reasons of high base, the growth rate has not improved year-on-year. Thread steel prices rose 0.4% in September, but slowed down by more than one point to - 15.5% year-on-year; cement prices rose 2.3% year-on-year compared with August, but the growth rate was basically the same as August; power coal prices rose slightly compared with August, and even slightly decreased year-on-year; crude oil prices rose significantly, but remained basically flat year-on-year. Overall, PPI is expected to continue to decline in September compared with August, and the growth rate is expected to slow to - 1.3% year-on-year. From the perspective of monetary policy trend, Wang Qing said that from the regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in the third quarter, more emphasis was placed on counter-cyclical adjustment, but the new statement on prices was added, which suggested that the overall price level should be maintained stable. From this analysis, the tone of monetary policy operation did not change significantly in the fourth quarter, with interest rate cuts or further delays. In the next step, the central bank will mainly take measures to dredge monetary policy transmission, so as to significantly reduce the level of real interest rates, and guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, especially for small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and manufacturing industries. Lu Zhengmei, chief economist of Societe Generale Bank and Huafu Securities, told Securities Daily that the market's expectations for stable growth policies may be warming up, but with CPI rising year-on-year and the fall of interest rate reduction expectations in September, the market's expectations for interest rate reduction may weaken.

"Current monetary policy has ample space, interest rate level and statutory deposit reserve ratio have room for reduction. Considering that the global economy may face long-term downward pressure, domestic monetary policy is not in a hurry to adopt greater relaxation to maintain the long-term effectiveness of conventional instruments. On the premise that the domestic economic growth rate reaches the standard, the priority of economic development quality is higher than the growth rate, and the fourth quarter may be an important observation window of monetary policy. " CITIC Securities (22.330, - 0.15, - 0.67%) Chief Fixed Income Analyst Mingming told the Securities Daily in an interview.