CPI and PPI rose and fell year on year in October

On November 9, the National Bureau of statistics released the data of CPI and PPI in October. In October, CPI rose 3.8% year on year, and PPI fell 1.6% year on year. Experts believe that the year-on-year increase of CPI in October continued to expand, mainly affected by the rise of pork prices, showing obvious structural characteristics. On the whole, macro policies should still adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, maintain strategic focus and continue to strengthen counter cyclical adjustment. According to the CPI data in October, Shen Yun, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, said that in October, the food price increased by 15.5%, with an increase of 4.3 percentage points, affecting the CPI increase of about 3.05 percentage points. Pork prices rose by 101.3%, affecting CPI by about 2.43 percentage points, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total year-on-year CPI increase. The prices of beef, mutton, chicken, duck and egg increased between 12.3% and 21.4%, and the five items affected the CPI increase by about 0.41%. "Behind the rise in food prices, the rise in pork prices is the main reason, not all food prices are rising rapidly. " Yang Guangpu, deputy researcher of the Macroeconomic Research Department of the development research center of the State Council, said that due to multiple factors, the tight situation of pork supply has not been fundamentally reversed. Guo Liyan, researcher of China Academy of macroeconomics, thinks that in October, the price of pork rose. In addition to the sharp decline in the stock due to classical swine fever, the number of commercial sows transferred to energy breeding sows also increased significantly, reducing the current market volume. All these factors have a certain impact on the price. However, it is also conducive to increasing the supply of pigs and pork in the future. In addition, the data shows that PPI in October decreased by 1.6% year on year. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 2.6%, with an increase of 0.6%; the price of means of living increased by 1.4%, with an increase of 0.3%. According to the analysis of Yang Guangpu, in the future, the price rate of pork will maintain a high level, but with the decrease of fresh fruit price, the continuous flattening of grain price, and the year-on-year growth of fresh vegetable price from positive to negative, there is little room for the continuous rise of food price, and the possibility of continuous expansion of the rise is relatively small. According to Guo Liyan, after deducting the core CPI of food and energy, it is still 1.5%. Residential products, service products and industrial consumer goods are all stable or slightly declining, and structural upward pressure may continue to appear.

According to the survey, the willingness and enthusiasm of some farms above Designated Size to supplement the livestock are significantly improved, and the capacity is being restored. It is believed that after a period of breeding cycle, the market is expected to increase the effective supply. In addition, the import source and scale of livestock, meat and poultry meat have been significantly expanded, consumption substitution has been reasonably promoted, and supply tension will continue to ease. " Guo Liyan said. Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the financial research center of the Bank of communications, said that the year-on-year increase of CPI in October further expanded, food prices and non food prices continued to differentiate, and core CPI was at a low level, in line with market expectations. CPI's year-on-year growth exceeded expectations, mainly affected by the rise in pork prices. CPI excluding pork rose about 1.3% year-on-year, while non food prices fell to 0.9%. According to Liu Xuezhi, CPI is expected to remain at a high level from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. However, due to the weak demand, there are no other factors that significantly drive CPI up except pork price, and the differentiation between food price and non food price will continue. From the perspective of PPI, affected by weak internal and external demand, PPI lacks the power to rise and will continue to grow in a negative way. The rise of CPI in recent months has a strong structural feature and does not represent the overall rise of price level. At present, China's economic operation is still facing downward pressure, and macro policies still need to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress in stability, maintain strategic focus, continue to strengthen counter cyclical adjustment, and cannot be greatly adjusted due to short-term structural pressure. " Yang Guangpu said.